This past Thursday marked one week since the start of this year’s free agency period in the NFL.  While the debate over whether building through the draft or free agency is the better move, teams across the country dropped hundreds of millions of dollars on players that they hope will make their teams better in the coming seasons.  Whether the signings pan out or not, of course, remains to be seen; here, I attempt to bring some semblance of organization to a week filled with transactions and unexpected drama while analyzing some of the most impactful moves so far this off-season.

 

CB AJ Bouye to Jaguars- 5 years, $67.5 million, $26 million guaranteed

CB Stephon Gilmore to Patriots- 5 years, $65million, $40 million guaranteed

The two biggest contracts that have been shelled out this week both went to cornerbacks, showing how valuable teams feel that potential number one cornerbacks can be.  Both Bouye and Gilmore come with some decent-sized question marks—Bouye has really only been a sure-fire starter for a year, and Gilmore has never quite lived up to his considerable physical gifts—but in the end, I think that the Jaguars and Patriots both got good value here.  The Jags have no real direction on the offensive side of the ball, so building a strong defense is the best way to get in the play-off hunt, and sticking Bouye across from Jalen Ramsey gives the team a terrific cornerback pair.  As for Gilmore, having him around to team up with Malcolm Butler at corner gives the Pats a deeper secondary—Gilmore, at 6’0″, would allow the smaller Butler to shift into the slot whenever it is required, and the new signing’s speed makes him a slot candidate, as well. Gilmore’s presence also gives Bill Belichick a nice “back-up plan” if the former Super Bowl hero leaves New England due to his current contract stalemate.

 

DL Calais Campbell to Jaguars- 4 years, $60 million, $30 million guaranteed

RG Kevin Zeitler to Browns- 5 years, $60 million, $31.5 million guaranteed

Both of these guys are really exceptional players that are opting to go from contenders (Cardinals, Bengals) to rebuilders (Jaguars, Browns).  Of course, the money certainly helps a little bit—considering the lack of depth along both lines in this year’s draft class, linemen were going at a premium, and these guys are probably the best of the best.  Even though he is almost 31 and is being paid more in base salary than the majority of players in this post, I think that Campbell is one of the better signings in this free agency.  He is extraordinarily versatile, able to shift back and forth between playing end and tackle, and doesn’t rely on any one particular move to beat his blocker, so I think he’ll be able to make an impact along the Jags’ defensive line for the duration of his contract.  As for Zeitler, how good of a signing this is for the Browns determine how well they build up their offense around their newly re-built offensive line, which also has stalwart Joe Thomas and new center JC Tretter.  They’re following an approach similar to Oakland’s—making a great offensive line and allowing the skill players around them to develop—but if Cleveland can’t get the right players to develop, they’ll be sinking a lot of money into a vicious, but ultimately useless, blocker.

 

LT Riley Reiff to Vikings- 5 years, $58.75 million, $26.3 million guaranteed

LT Matt Kalil to Panthers- 5 years, $55 million, $25 million guaranteed

LT Russell Okung to Chargers- 4 years, $53 million, $25 million guaranteed

Like I said earlier, linemen are really at a premium in this draft.  The contracts for these three men really prove that.  Don’t get me wrong—every one of these players is extraordinarily talented, all of them having been first round picks, and would be elite tackles if they were able to play to their potential—but the thing is, they have never really proven that they are capable of doing so.  We’ll start with Reiff, whose deal is probably the best of the aforementioned players, simply because the guaranteed money that Reiff was afforded is somewhat commensurate with how Reiff performed during his career in Detroit.  Because of that, the former Lion is effectively only on a two-year deal with Minnesota, which makes the huge contract a little bit more palatable, but the fact that he’s even getting that much money, considering his inconsistencies at both tackle positions, is a little but baffling.  That being said, his better days have been significantly better than those of the man of who he is basically replacing, Kalil, who is headed to Carolina to team up with his brother, center Matt, among concerns about Michael Oher’s concussion issues.  Kalil has had injury issues of his own, which have, admittedly, played a role in his up-and-down performances for Minnesota, but the fact of the matter is that the former Viking has never really learned to leverage his incredible physical gifts to turn into a competent blocker.  His contract will most likely end up as some type of disaster for the Panthers, which is certainly not a good thing, especially considering how cap struggles have negatively affected the team in recent years.  Okung’s deal falls somewhere in the middle of his two fellow tackles.  On one hand, he has shown that his ceiling is far higher than almost any tackle in the league, having performed at an elite level for the team that drafted him, Seattle.  On the other, though, he signed a disastrous contract with Denver last year that saw him released to the open market this year after what was an incredibly steep drop in performance.  Okung should bounce back, but he’ll never be able to reach the heights that he did with the Seahawks, even though the Chargers are paying him like he’s already there.

 

WR Pierre Garcon to 49ers- 5 years, $47.5 million, $17 million guaranteed

WR Robert Woods to Rams- 5 years, $39 million, $15 million guaranteed

The funny thing about these two deals is that they were both handed out to guys who were de-facto #2 receivers with their old teams– Garçon with Washington and Woods with Buffalo, respectively.  On account of that, both of these contracts strike me as slightly more expensive than they needed to be, but in the long run, I think that San Fran is getting a far better deal here.  I recognize that Garçon is 6 years older than his new NFC West rival, but the former Redskin very much fits the mold of an Anquan Boldin-type receiver, a veteran that is a great route runner with good hands, and Boldin was a key cog in the 49er offense the last time the team was good.  Woods, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, despite getting a lot of single coverage opposite Sammy Watkins in Buffalo.  Rumor has it that the team wanted Woods because he’s both fast and strong, allowing him to be an exceptional edge blocker for what figures to be an offense predicated on running the ball with Todd Gurley, but a receiver’s main job is catching the ball, and if the Rams were looking for a good blocker, they surely could have found a player that they could have committed less money, and time, to than the former Bill.

 

QB Mike Glennon to Bears- 3 years, $45 million, $18.5 million guaranteed

There have been some very divided opinions about this signing for my hometown Bears.  Those that view this deal as a good one note Glennon’s decent performances as a starter with limited options in Tampa Bay, the former Buccaneer’s arm strength, and the fact that this contract is basically a one year one that is paying Glennon what is essentially league average for a starting quarterback.  Those that critique it wonder why a man that hasn’t started a game in over 2 years is suddenly worth market-value for Chicago, and question who else was bidding up the QB’s price that he deserved to get so much money.  In general, I think this is a decent signing for Chicago—yes, the deal is a bit pricy, but as I said, based on his guarantees, it’s basically a one year deal, and his presence will allow the team to develop whoever they (should) pick up in the draft to come along slowly instead of being thrown right into the fire.

 

Other Big Signings:

S Tony Jefferson to Ravens- 4 years, $36 million, $14 million guaranteed

My Grade: B-

RG Ronald Leary to Broncos- 4 years, $36 million, $24 million guaranteed

My Grade: B+

G Larry Warford to Saints- 4 years, $34 million, $17 million guaranteed

My Grade: C

LT Andrew Whitworth to Rams- 3 years, $33.75 million, $15 million guaranteed

My Grade: A

WR DeSean Jackson to Buccaneers- 3 years, $33.5 million, $20 million guaranteed

My Grade: A

 

Underrated Signings:

CB Captain Munnerlyn to Panthers- 4 years, $21 million, $10.5 million guaranteed

A somewhat-redeeming signing for Carolina.  It’s well-known that the Panthers were a bit of a mess at cornerback last year—their decision to call former star Josh Norman’s bluff backfired, and the lack of consistency in the defensive backfield was a big reason why they struggled on defense last year (and that, in turn, was probably the biggest reason why they missed the play-offs).  Enter Munnerlyn, who is return to the team that drafted him after spending the last 3 seasons in Minnesota.  He isn’t a very tall cornerback—he’s only 5’9”—but he’s used his speed and improved ball skills to cause problems for receivers, and he provides a veteran presence at a position that was devoid of it after Norman’s departure.  He’s a solid pick-up for Dave Gettleman, especially at an AAV of just over $5 million a year.

 

QB Brian Hoyer to 49ers- 2 years, $12 million, $10 million guaranteed

Brian Hoyer has had an up-and-down career—one that started with him being part of the revolving door of back-ups behind Tom Brady New England and has seen him undergo multiple renaissances after stepping in for injured starters (Houston, Chicago).  During times when he’s gotten extended playing time—and has had halfway decent weapons to work with—he has proven himself to be, at the very least, an average quarterback.  In today’s market, as showcased by Mike Glennon’s deal, an average quarterback might get anywhere from $10-15 million a year.  That he is only getting $6 million a year in a QB-friendly system that will surely enhance his what talent he already has makes him a good deal for San Fran.

 

FB Patrick DiMarco to Bills- 4 years, $8.4 million, $4.8 million guaranteed

DiMarco was a largely unnoticeable, but extremely crucial component to one of best offenses in recent memory.  He’s always been known as a fairly solid run blocker, but he improved his blitz recognition to become an adequate pass protector, and he’s also capable of being a weapon out of the backfield, having shown some decent speed and field awareness after catching passes.  That the Bills were able to get him for the price of a decent kicker is pretty impressive, considering how valuable he will be to LeSean McCoy and how little money he got in comparison to the other top fullback on the market (there’ll be more on him later).

 

WR Terrelle Pryor to Redskins- 1 year, $6 million, $6 million guaranteed

I recognize that another receiver that signed a similar deal to this one, Alshon Jeffery, got a contract that was just as good, if not better, than the one that Pryor got.  But the need for a receiver in Washington was much more pressing after the ‘Skins lost their top two targets from last season, seeing both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon get big contracts elsewhere.  Getting Pryor on what is essentially #2 receiver money, on a “prove-it” length deal, was greatly beneficial for the team and the player, especially since the former Ohio State star will (probably) be hauling in passes from a far better quarterback than anyone he had in Cleveland while offering the team an explosive option as a pass-catcher.

 

Overrated Signings:

WR Kenny Stills, Dolphins- 4 years, $31.9 million, $19.95 million guaranteed

Yes, I recognize that this is technically a re-signing, but we’re going to roll with it anyway.  I’m a big Stills fan—I think that New Orleans made a big mistake in trading him to Miami—but inking the receiver to a deal that will see him get paid like a low-end #1 is an even larger error from Miami.  The large touchdown numbers that he put up last season were largely a fluke (that’s probably what propelled him to such a large deal in the first place), and on top of that, he isn’t even the third best receiver on the team.  His presence, both on the field and on the salary cap, will almost certainly hamper DeVante Parker’s future with the team, which isn’t a great thing for the franchise.  A real questionable move here.

 

ILB Malcolm Smith to 49ers- 5 years, $26.5 million, $11.5 million guaranteed

Smith had his moment in the sun with the Seahawks after intercepting Peyton Manning and returning the pick for a touchdown back in Super Bowl .  Even then, though, teams recognized his limitations, and the Raiders gave him a two-year deal worth about $3.5 million a year.  He didn’t impress during his time in Oakland, being poor against the run and not flashing the coverage skills that earned him a role in Seattle.  Now, though?  Smith gets a deal worth over $5 million a year for a position that’s already fairly solidified due to the presence of NaVarro Bowman.  Another iffy decision by the new regime in San Fran.

 

FB Kyle Juszczyk to 49ers- 4 years, $21 million, $10.5 million guaranteed

Look, I get that there probably aren’t that many players that are going to want to sign for a team that’s been a doormat over the past couple seasons, no matter how much money you throw at them.  I get the there’s a reason that the former Raven fullback is considered an elite player at his position.  But let’s be real here—a rebuilding team dropping almost $11 million in guarantees on a fullback?  There had to be some other way that John Lynch could have put this money to better use in restocking the Niners.  I just don’t understand this one at all.

 

TE Dion Sims to Bears- 3 years, $18 million, $10 million guaranteed

Don’t get me wrong here—the Bears need a tight end or two.  Outside of incumbent starter Zach Miller, there isn’t really much depth.  But if you’re going to give a tight end this much money in guarantees, they better be pretty versatile.  Unfortunately, the Michigan State product has not proven himself to be anything of the sort so far.  In fact, he’s barely managed to start a third of his professional games, being held back by the oft-injured, and recently retired, Jordan Cameron.  That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for a player that Chicago is paying like a bona-fide starter.

 

Key Re-Signings:

S Eric Berry, Chiefs- 6 years, $78 million, $38.7 million guaranteed

Kansas City made it clear that, when it came to whether Berry or Dontari Poe was more important to the performance of their defense, that the former Tennessee safety was “the man.”  The contract length itself may be a bit long, even for a guy with as much spring in his step as Berry—it’s increasingly rare to see anything beyond one or two years being guaranteed in the NFL anymore, unless you’re an elite quarterback— but making an exception for Berry was a smart move by KC.  It was essential that the Chiefs keep the face of their franchise around as long as they could.  So, in that sense, this a great deal for both sides, and a great story for Berry, who is getting rewarded handsomely after his phenomenal comeback from Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

 

ILB Dont’a Hightower, Patriots- 4 years, $43.5 million, $19 million guaranteed

Hightower’s status as the “unsung hero” of New England’s Super Bowl victory—his strip sack of Matt Ryan got the momentum going the Pats’ way—devalues the massive impact he had in Matt Petricia’s defense during the regular season, especially after fellow ‘backer Jaime Collins was shipped to Cleveland.  Without the tackle machine wreaking havoc in both the run and pass defenses, the Patriots wouldn’t have had anywhere near the defense required to make the run that they did to the Super Bowl.  The former Alabama linebacker was probably slightly disappointed in his market—in all honesty, I was surprised that the Chiefs didn’t try to find a way to move Jeremy Maclin and go after Hightower—so for him, this deal isn’t exactly ideal.  But he’s playing on a team where he has the best chance to succeed, and for an organization that values him.  Solid deal all-around.

 

RB Le’Veon Bell, Steelers- 1 year, $12.12 million (franchise tag)

As far as running backs go, this deal is a little bit on the expensive side.  But this isn’t just any running back we’re talking about; this is Bell, who, along with Antonio Brown, forms the most explosive 1-2 punch in all of football.  Tagging Bell allowed them to work out a long-term extension for Brown, who re-upped with the Steelers for another four years.  As the team works its way out of financial hardship, this is sure to be a simple segway to some big bucks for Bell in Pittsburgh.  His deal might be a little but below value for the back for this year, though it should work out for him and the team in the long run, which, if anyone has seen how explosive the Bell-Brown combination can be, is most certainly a great thing for Mike Tomlin and company.

 

DT Brandon Williams, Ravens- 5 years, $54 million, $27.5 million guaranteed

When you think of great Ravens defenses, you probably think of the vicious tackling machine Ray Lewis, or the ball-hawking safety Ed Reed.  However, a big man up front, Haloti Ngata, was pretty important to the best Ravens’ defenses of the past decade or so.  The similarities between those defenses and Baltimore’s defense this year, which finished 7^th in yards allowed per game, are fairly obvious, then—most of the attention goes to CJ Mosley and Eric Weddle, and rightfully so.  But Williams played a crucial part in making the Ravens virtually impossible to run on in the second half of the season, and his ability to manage two blockers was crucial to the team’s pass rush.  The extension is a little steep, considering the deal that a player in a very similar mold, Damon Harrison, got in free agency last year, but if he can keep up his run-stuffing ways, GM Ozzie Newsome won’t have to worry about building up the defensive line anytime soon.

 

Other Important Re-Signings/Franchise Tags

OLB Chandler Jones, Cardinals- 5 years, $83 million, $53 million guaranteed

QB Kirk Cousins, Redskins- 1 year, $23.943 million (franchise tag)

WR Terrence Williams, Cowbots- 4 years, $17 million, $9.5 million guaranteed

DT Kawann Short, Panthers- 1 year, $13.648 million (franchise tag)

 

Best Still Available:

Jonathan Hankins, DT

Possible Suitors: Giants, Eagles, Dolphins

Hankins is a pretty versatile player—he’s good against the run, as all defensive tackles need to be in today’s game, and was one of the Giants’ better pass rushers last year.  That being said, he’s not at an elite level, even though he wants to be paid like he is.  That’s why he has yet to return to New York, where he is very much coveted, just at a lower price.  If the two sides can’t come to terms, there’s a threat that the rival Eagles, who lost Bennie Logan to the Chiefs, and Dolphins, who have been linked with Hankins for a while now, might be able to steal him away.  There’s no real frontrunner in his race so long as Hankins maintains his demands, so we’ll just have to wait and see how this one turns out.

 

Adrian Peterson, RB

Possible Suitors: Raiders, Packers, Cowboys

It’s somewhat understandable that the best back of his generation is still on the open market—he turns 32 in 2 days, he’s coming off a major knee injury, and is also coming off a huge contract with Minnesota that may give him and his agent an inflated sense of his value.  Again though: this guy is the best back of his generation, and produced for years behind iffy offensive lines.  Age is a major concern for the Raiders to take into account with Peterson, considering the youth of their core, but would otherwise be a great fit behind their excellent linemen.  The rival Packers would also be an interesting fit for his services, considering their inconsistencies in the running game since Ahman Green’s departure, and the Cowboys have also kicked the tires on using Peterson as a complement to their incredible second year man, Ezekiel Elliott.  In the end, though, expect the former Viking to wind up in Oakland.

 

Darrelle Revis, CB

Possible Suitors: Steelers, Patriots, Cowboys

The veteran corner struggled mightily in New York last season, and at 31, it looks like age might be catching up to the “Revis Island.”  That doesn’t mean that there aren’t any teams that might be interested in eking out whatever Revis has left in the tank.  At the top of the list are the Steelers, who always seem to be interested in secondary help.  A reunion with the Patriots, especially considering the uncertainty around Malcolm Butler, and a contract with Dallas, who lost both Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr to free agency, are also possible.  The most likely outcome at this point seems to be retirement for Revis, but until he makes a definitive decision, there will be teams interested in his services.

 

Jay Cutler, QB

Possible Suitors: Jets, Browns

The strong-armed slinger, who was recently released by the Bears after spending 8 up-and-down years in Chicago, is the best veteran quarterback that’s still on the market.  The Jets really look like an idea fit for him, considering that the only two QB’s currently on their roster are still incredibly raw, but the team has yet to strike a balance on a deal that has good enough terms, especially duration wise, to please Cutler.  Meanwhile, the Browns could also be an option, but they would probably have to move on from the recently-acquired Brock Osweiler for that to become reality.

 

Other Transactions:

Browns trade for Brock Osweiler

The trade: Texans trade 2^nd round pick in 2018 and Brock Osweiler to Browns for 4^th round pick

This deal looked a lot like one that an NBA team would make—trading a somewhat valuable asset along with a player with a huge salary in what can effectively be termed a salary dump.  A lot of people are, for some reason, questioning Cleveland’s logic on this one, saying that the draft pick they got for the former Texan isn’t valuable enough to warrant taking on the QB’s exorbitant salary.  From a strictly present value standpoint, they’re entirely correct—paying Osweiler $16 million a season just to get a pick is very steep—but considering how much cap space the Browns had before this move, it makes total sense to me.  Cleveland gets a 2^nd rounder and a quarterback that can compete with Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler for the starter’s job and a player that they can move on from with little repercussions in 2018, while Houston gets a 4^th rounder that’s slightly higher than what they had before.  This is a huge W for the Browns, and if the Texans are able to get Tony Romo, it might be for them, too.

 

Patriots trade for Brandin Cooks

The trade: Saints trade 4^th round pick and Brandin Cooks to Patriots for 1^st and 3^rd round picks

It was no secret that the former Oregon State receiver was upset with his role in the New Orleans offense last season, and that New England was an interested party.  That didn’t mean I thought this deal was going to happen—Cooks is still cost-controlled for another season, and even though rookie Mike Thomas seemed to emerge as Drew Brees’s top target, having a player as explosive as Cooks certainly couldn’t hurt; I’m also a lot higher on Danny Amendola, the man that Cooks will (probably) effectively replacing, than most.  That being said, though, this is a pretty good deal for both sides.  The Saints get the first round pick that they were craving, even though it is low, and upgraded the 4^th that the gave to New England to a 3^rd.  Bill Belichick’s team gets a speed threat that they haven’t had since Deion Branch was in his prime, and allows the Patriots to have the most dynamic, and possibly most dangerous, set in the whole league (Cooks and Julian Edelman at receiver, Rob Gronkowski and the newly-acquired Dwayne Allen at tight end, and either James White or Dion Lewis at running back), certainly giving Tom Brady a shot at another championship without giving up too much for a player that could effectively be a #1 receiver.  This is a deal that really benefits both teams.

It’s that time of year again—March Madness has begun!  This year’s tournament field is as balanced as ever, as there are tons of teams that seem to have the potential to have the potential to make it all the way to cut down the nets in Glendale.  No one team stood out in the regular season, but many teams flashed their mettle and owned their respective schedules, while conference tournaments saw many teams that underwhelmed during the regular season crash the Dance, and they come in hungry to continue their unlikely run towards a national championship.  The unpredictability generated by this year’s match-ups will surely make for a very intriguing, and very dramatic, tournament this year—here’s my detailed outlook on how I think it’ll play out:

 

East Region

First Round

#1 Villanova def. #16 Mount Saint Mary’s

The number one overall seed will not lose in the first round.  Moving on.

 

#8 Wisconsin def. #9 Virginia Tech

In this bloggers humbled opinion, both of these teams are woefully under-seeded, but it is their inconsistencies that put them both in this position.  The Badgers have a really good team, led by Nigel Hayes, which thrives in high-leverage situations, but their shooting problems saw them lose five in a stretch of six games.  The Hokies, meanwhile, have established themselves as an offensive power under the creative mind of Buzz Williams, but their defensive struggles in a very talented ACC caused them to falter in a lot of games that they should have won.  So which team overcomes its liabilities to move on?    Personally, I feel that the trio of star Badgers—Hayes, Ethan Happ, and Bronson Koenig—will provide Greg Gard’s group enough points to overcome the potent Hokies.  Wisco wins.

 

#5 Virginia def. #12 UNC Wilmington

UNC Wilmington gave Duke a huge scare at last year’s tournament, and the Seahawks will get another shot at knocking off an ACC power in this match-up against the Wahoos.  Both teams have strengths that match their opponents—Tony Bennett’s team is known for its stifling defense, whereas Kevin Keatts’s team runs one of the most efficient offenses in Division One—so I expect this one to be a very grinding, taxing game for both sets of players, in the vein of how traditional 5-12 match-ups are.  In the end, though, I think it’ll actually be Virginia’s underappreciated offense, which, though maddeningly slow and inconsistent, has some decent potential, that’ll allow them to sidestep an upset and advance to the next round.

 

#4 Florida def. #13 Eastern Tennessee State

The Gators seem to be one of the more low-key high seeds in the past decade—they aren’t nearly as flashy as their conference brethren, Kentucky, but they’ve overcome some injuries and streaky shooting to establish themselves as the best team in the SEC after the Wildcats while being incredibly efficient on both ends of the court.  Their opponent, the Buccaneers, are very much opportunists.  They thrive on aggressive defense and quick possessions, forcing lots of turnovers and committing many of their own.  Tournament play is more suited to teams that are more balanced and composed, so that in and of itself favors the Gators, and that’s not even counting the talent gap that Mike White’s team has over his opponents.  Florida moves on.

 

#6 Southern Methodist def. #11 Southern California

From a scoring perspective, these teams are both pretty similar—they have great balance throughout their line-up, and when their shots are falling from deep, they’re almost impossible to stop.  That’s where the similarities end, though.  The Mustangs have been incredibly consistent all season long, and in addition to their efficient scoring, they’ve proven to be a great rebounding team that also has a very disciplined defense.  The Trojans played well enough towards the beginning of the season deserve a spot in the final 68, but they are also incredibly streaky— they lost five of their last eight regular season games, with their only victories coming at down-and-out Washington and Washington State— and if they aren’t hitting their shots from outside, they don’t really have any tried and true way to beat their opponents.  After beating Providence, they should suffer a pretty big loss against Tim Jankovich’s sqaud.

 

#3 Baylor def. #14 New Mexico State

The Bears started the season without any votes in pre-seasons polls, which made some sense, considering they lost their two best players to graduation.  Even without them, though, Scott Drew’s crew managed to maintain a top-20 defense in the notoriously high-scoring Big 12, and with the versatile Jonathan Motley leading the offense, they’ve been inconsistent, but they’ve managed to put up enough points to put up a fight against some of the better teams in the country.  The Aggies, meanwhile, have been the model of consistency—they’ve made the tournament in five of the last six years—and have a solid trio of guards, headlined by point guard Ian Baker, that propelled them into the tournament.  NMSU’s shooting ability might give Baylor some trouble, and for that, this one might actually be pretty close, as far as 3-14 games go, but I think that the physicality that the Bears have will be too much to overcome, and that they escape with a W.

 

#7 South Carolina def. #10 Marquette

This is going to be a really good game.  On one side we have the Gamecocks, a team with one of the best defenses in the country, yet has lots of trouble scoring.  They are led by their vociferous coach, Frank Martin, and their star forward, Sindarius Thornwell.  On the other we have the Golden Eagles, which are the best 3-point shooting team in the nation and have an incredible transition game, but their defense can be… pretty atrocious.  Each team’s strength corresponds with the others—so who will win?  In the end, I think Martin’s tournament experience, and the fact that this is basically a home game from the Gamecocks, will allow them to advance.

 

#2 Duke def. #15 Troy

The Trojans are not a bad team, by any means—there’s no place for bad here in the tournament, and besides, with leading scorer Jordon Varnado (16.8 PPG, 53.5 FG%), the Sun Belt team actually has a decent offense—but they finished in the middle of the pack in a middling conference and are coming up against a Blue Devil team that is heating up at the right time, having just won the ACC Tournament in relatively convincing fashion.  This one should be somewhat high scoring, but I don’t expect Mike Krzyzewski’s crew to have much trouble.

 

Second Round

#1 Villanova def. #8 Wisconsin

Both of these teams have core players that excel in the big time and coaches that understand what it takes to get big wins in the NCAA tournament, having both been coaches for teams that made it to a national championship game.  So in virtually every facet of the game on paper, neither team has an advantage, meaning it will all come down to execution, and, if this season’s results mean anything (they do), that means that there’ll be one clear winner.  Josh Hart leads the Wildcats on to the Sweet 16.

 

#5 Virginia def. #4 Florida

Neither of these teams come into the tournament with any sort of momentum—the Gators struggled to put away Mississippi State before losing three of their last five regular season games, and Virginia was 5-5 in its last ten.  The problem with both squad’s was their ability to put the ball in the basket.  The thing is, though, is that Virginia was, with the exception of Virginia Tech, playing some decent defenses in their games, whereas the Gators were not.  And now they have to play the best D in all of basketball.  I can’t see them having much success.  Tony Bennett’s team takes this one.

 

#6 SMU def. #3 Baylor

Both of these teams are really similar in a lot of ways—they’re both from Texas, they’re both incredibly physical, and they both have ferocious defenses.  The difference maker in this one for me will be the match-up between Baylor’s star, Motley, and former Duke transfer, and SMU’s leading scorer, Semi Ojeleye; whichever one can provide his team with more of a spark on the offense will allow his team to pull this one out.  I think the victor of that battle will be Ojeleye, and SMU advances to claim the title of the best college team in Texas.

 

#2 Duke def. #7 South Carolina

South Carolina will definitely have deserved their victory in the previous round, but the reasons that I felt they had an advantage over Marquette are virtually gone in this game—the Blue Devils have a far better defense than the Golden Eagles, and their offense is more balanced, and explosive, than anything the Big East school could offer.  Besides that, having the game in South Carolina doesn’t give the Gamecocks much of a “home court” advantage over a team from North Carolina.  The Dukies advance.

 

Sweet 16

#1 Villanova def. #5 Virginia

This is a game where I think that the Wahoos lack of an offense will really come back to bite them—‘Nova doesn’t have an elite defense, but they are a model of consistency on the offensive side of the ball, and I think that Jay Wright and his coaching staff will have a game plan that helps neutralize some of Virginia’s ferocity.  At least, enough to propel the defending champs into the next round without having to sweat too much.

 

#2 Duke def. #6 SMU

Both of these teams entered the tournament on a high note, having both won their respective conference tournaments, and it’ll be exciting to see the rhythm that each team will surely be in after reaching this point.  The Mustangs defense is very good—good enough to lead them to an upset—but I ultimately think that their offense relies a bit too much on their shooting.  If they’re not 100% on, the Blue Devils will be able to capitalize, through their own star shooters or the interior presence that is Amile Jefferson.  In the end, I just can’t see the Mustangs being consistent enough from behind the arc to win this game.  Duke advances.

 

Elite 8

#2 Duke def. #1 Villanova

A game between two elite teams with great coaches, incredible offensive firepower, and decent defenses, I think this one will come down to who can get a couple of stops when time is of the essence.  Villanova has much better defensive statistics, but they’ve struggled a bit with teams that are willing to be more physical with them, and Duke has proven that they are more than adept at shutting down offenses that revolve around efficient guard play (Notre Dame twice, Virginia, North Carolina).  For that reason, I see the Blue Devils moving on to Arizona.

 

Midwest Region

First Round

#1 Kansas def. #16 University of California, Davis

The Aggies really aren’t all that strong on the offensive end of the court, but they really figured out how to play some solid defense as the season wound down, and that which allowed them to win their conference tournament should allow them to win their First Four game.  That’s really all there is to say here, though.  Bill Self’s Jayhawks are too tall, too strong, and too deep for the the California school.  Kansas moves on.

 

#8 Miami (FL) def. #9 Michigan State

By name only, both of these teams underwhelmed a little bit—Miami had the talent to make a push for the top 4 in the ACC, but they fell to 8^th and only won one tournament game before being shellacked by North Carolina, while the young Spartans were uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball and sometimes had some difficulties executing Tom Izzo’s trademark defense.  I see the Hurricanes, who are led by senior guard Davon Reed, will leverage their experience to force the Sparty into enough mistakes to allow Jim Larranaga and company to move on.

 

#5 Iowa State def. #12 Nevada

The Wolf Pack were by far the class of the Mountain West Conference, putting up lots of points in a very pro-style offensive game-plan put in place by former Sacramento Kings coach.  They have the firepower to pull off what would be a traditional upset, but their opponents, the Cyclones, have an even better one, led by senior point guard Monte Morris.  Steve Prohm’s team is also on a bit of a hot streak, coming into the tourney having won the Big 12 tournament.  For those reasons, I believe that ISU will be able to avoid the upset in this high-scoring affair.

 

#4 Purdue def. #13 Vermont

I was really tempted to pick upset here—outside of Caleb Swanigan, nobody on the Big Ten champion’s roster has really been all that impressive, and the Catamounts have the longest win streak in the country at 21 games.  There’s just one problem for them- Swanigan.  One of two human double-double’s, the big man’s strength and versatility will draw a lot of attention from Vermont’s defense, which will open up a lot of easy shots for his teammates, and even then, they still might not be able to stop the big Boilermaker.  Purdue squeaks through to the next round.

 

#11 Rhode Island def. #6 Creighton

It’s unfortunate that the committee had to pair a decent amount of the better, smaller schools together—this game is one of those cases, and Dayton playing Wichita State is another example.  The teams have had different trajectories as the season played out—the Rams were ranked in the pre-season but started incredibly slow before recovering to win the Atlantic 10 tournament, whereas the Bluejays started fast before stuttering after point guard Maurice Watson’s injury.  Ultimately, I think that injury will be too much for Greg McDermott’s team to overcome, and Rhody’s strong guard play will carry them to a first round upset.

 

#3 Oregon def. #14 Iona

Iona are actually a sneaky good 14 seed—they played Florida State tough for a half early in their season, beat MWC champion Nevada, and prevented the infamous Monmouth bench mob from making the tournament for the second year running.  They also score a lot of points, with their offense ranking 30^th in the nation.  Their big issue is that they also give up a lot of points; that’s definitely not something that they’re going to be able to overcome against the Ducks, who have at least three guys that can score consistently on the Gaels small line-up, even with senior Chris Boucher.  Expect Dana Altman’s team to have an easy time here.

 

#7 Michigan def. #10 Oklahoma State

These are two of the streakiest teams of the season—both started remarkably poorly, but managed to turn up the heat as the season came to a close, with the Wolverines snagging an automatic bid by winning the Big Ten tournament and OSU winning big games against…  well…  bottom-feeding Big 12 teams.  That’s the difference between them here.  Michigan has managed to stop, and score on, teams that have more talent than them, whereas the Cowboys plateaued the Big 12’s best, losing its last three regular season games.  I expect this one to be high scoring, but also for Michigan to have a fairly easy time of moving on.

 

#2 Louisville def. #15 Jacksonville State

I disagree with the committee’s seeding of Louisville hear, but nobody can deny that the Cardinals are a force to be reckon with.  They have a vicious defense—it’s shown some leaks lately, but is the 6^th best in the country, as rated by KenPom.com—and a balanced offense led by guard Donovan Mitchell.  The Gamecocks have a halfway decent offense, but they were inconsistent in the Ohio Valley Conference, and their offense is not good enough to put a scare into a team as strong and lengthy as Rick Pitino’s is.  Louisville locks up a second round place.

 

Second Round

#1 Kansas def. #8 Miami (FL)

Miami had an advantage over a young, turnover-prone Michigan State team in their first game; they’ll have no such advantage in this one.  They’ll have to work extra hard to try and get points against the disciplined Jayhawks defense, and then work even harder to prevent the electric freshman Josh Jackson from putting up 40.  In the end, I just think that Bill Self has too deep of a team for the Hurricanes to overcome them.  Kansas advances.

 

#5 Iowa State def. #4 Purdue

This game will see a clash of teams with contrasting styles—Iowa State has been fast-paced since Fred Hoiberg was head coach, and the Boilermakers concentrate more on a more methodical, inside-out type offense.  Typically, in tournament games like this, the team that is able to take better care of the basketball will pull it out.  Purdue’s turnovers allowed Arkansas-Little Rock to upset them last season, and their issues with keeping possession remain in this year’s squad, and the Cyclones’ fast pace will give them even more trouble than most teams.  ISU moves on.

 

#11 Rhode Island def. #3 Oregon

There are two reasons why this is my only real major upset—the first is that I want to see how far down my roommate, who is a die-hard Oregon fan, scrolls down on this post—and the second is that I actually think that the Rams have a shot at pulling this off.  Boucher was an integral part of Oregon’s interior presence, and while his absence doesn’t mean that the Ducks don’t have an advantage in the paint (they still do), it lessens the burden on the Rhody’s interior players and allows their guards, especially senior EC Matthews, to get penetration.  Dillon Brooks will probably have a huge game here, but I think that the Rams, who were very highly ranked as this season began, really found out how to play as a unit as the season drew to a close, and that camaraderie, and the efficient offense that they’ve morphed into, will be enough to see them pull off the win over the Ducks.

 

#7 Michigan def. #2 Louisville

For me, this one is all about momentum.  Louisville had a fantastic regular season, but they struggled towards the end of their regular season, especially against teams that had a good interior game.  Michigan’s frontcourt duo, Moritz Wagner and DJ Wilson, were a major part of why the Wolverines were able to knock off bigger, more talented teams en route to the Big 10 tournament championship.  Big Blue will still need a bit of luck from their perimeter players to get an upset here, but with the attention focused on Wagner and Wilson, I feel that they can do it.  Michigan advances.

 

Sweet 16

#1 Kansas def. #5 Iowa State

In a match-up that will surely have fans around the country salivating, the Jayhawks will have a chance to avenge their loss to the Cyclones that snapped their record-setting home winning streak.  I think that it will be a chance they take—Bill Self will have his team fired up for this one, and I think that the experience of Mason, combined with the flashiness of Jackson, should provide enough of a spark to get a victory.  If ISU can keep their turnovers low and drain around 40-45% of their shots from deep, they might have a chance, but otherwise, you can bet on the Jayhawks to overcome their conference rivals.

 

#7 Michigan def. #11 Rhode Island

This is the lowest seed pairing I have in the Sweet 16, and it’ll come in a game where the participants will have knocked off two giants of the game.  Both teams will have some distinct similarities coming into this one—they’ll both be tired from what are sure to be marathon victories, and they both have solid guard play.  The difference-maker, then, will be each team’s post presence.  In that area, the Wolverines have a distinct advantage—the pair of Wagner and Wilson both average over 10 points per game, and I think the Rams might have trouble slowing them down.  Michigan wins.

 

Elite 8

#1 Kansas def. #7 Michigan

Michigan will have made it this far on the virtue of their interior presence, and they actually have an advantage in the paint in this one, too.  The problem is that they don’t have enough wing players to contain the Jayhawks—Kansas’s top four scorers are all guards, and if any of them are afforded even a split second for an open look, they’ll tear the Wolverines apart (the four average 41% behind the arc, which is… pretty good).  John Belein has some good guards, but not enough to stop Kansas.  They’ll get into the Final Four without too much stress.

 

South Region

First Round

#1 North Carolina def. #16 Texas Southern

No offense to Texas Southern, but they are probably the least consistent of all of the 16 seeds in this tournament.  They’re squaring off against a North Carolina that was consistent enough to win the regular season title in perhaps the best league in college basketball, the ACC.  This will be no contest—the Tar Heels cruise on.

 

#8 Arkansas def. #9 Seton Hall

Both of these teams have been overshadowed by the big guns in their respective conferences—Kentucky and Villanova—but each bring something special to the table.  The Razorbacks are a force with the ball, averaging a touch over 80 points per game, while the Pirates are great at crashing the boards, finishing at 20^th best in the nation in rebounds per game.  Unfortunately for Seton Hall, they tend to get sloppy a bit on both ends of the floor, as demonstrated in the fact that they allow more points per possession than they score, and that’s not something conducive to tournament wins.  The Pigs pip the Pirates to party on.

 

#12 Middle Tennessee State def. #5 Minnesota

I actually feel bad for Minnesota—Richard Pitino’s team staged a remarkable turnaround from last season to develop into one of the Big Ten’s better teams, but they ended up getting over-seeded, leading to some national criticism, and get matched up with a Blue Raiders team that has demonstrated it knows exactly how to counter the style of play that’s prevalent in the Big Ten.  This year’s MTSU team has been even more consistent than last year’s, and they definitely have the talent, and the know-how, to knock off the Golden Gophers in this one, something that I feel they’ll be able to pull off.

 

#4 Butler def. #13 Winthrop

The Eagles can certainly pull off an upset here—they’re really good at perimeter defense, and their dynamite guard, Keon Johnson, can go off at any moment.  On the other hand, while I haven’t been overly impressed with the Bulldogs this year, but it’s hard to deny the balance that they have in both aspects of the game, and they’ve managed to put things together in big games, as they’ve beaten both Arizona and Villanova.  Chris Holtmann’s team will have a tough time in this one, but I still expect Butler to bounce their opponents.

 

#6 Cincinnati def. #11 Kansas State

The Wildcats will make it through to this match-up by virtue of their balanced offensive approach and the coaching nous of former Illinois head man Bruce Weber.  The issue with Weber’s team, though, is that there isn’t really anybody that can scare the Bearcats on defense, and you can rest assured that Mick Cronin and his team’s fourth-ranked defense will find a way to nip any potential momentum in the bud.  This should be a low-scoring game that Cincy pulls out to move to the next round.

 

#3 UCLA def. #14 Kent State

If this were simply a one-on-one between stars, the Golden Flashes might have a chance in this one, as Jimmy Hall certainly has the all-around talent to match-up against famous frosh Lonzo Ball.  Unfortunately for the MAC representative, the Bruins are a whole hell of a lot deeper than that.  Outside of Ball, they have the coach’s son, Bryce Alford, and a host of frontcourt players that allowed the team to average a national-best 90.4 points per game.  This should be an easy one—UCLA won’t have any problems here.

 

#10 Wichita State def. #7 Dayton

It’s a true tragedy that these two teams are slated to play each other in the first round—they have two of the better stories in basketball.  Gregg Marshall’s Shockers are proving to be a tournament regular now, walloping team after team in the Missouri Valley Conference and thriving as a strong shooting and defensive team, while Archie Miller’s Flyers have are a jack-of-all-trades type team that is good at everything and bad at nothing.  In the end, though, I think that Wichita State’s defense is energetic enough to get stops to pull off an “upset” in this one—they’ll move on.

 

#2 Kentucky def. #15 Northern Kentucky

In a logistical sense, this is probably a dream match-up for the Norse—they get a chance to show off their incredible nickname on a national stage while squaring off against an in-state opponent.  Other than that, though, there really isn’t much to be enthused about if you’re an NKU fan.  John Calipari’s team is loaded with future lottery picks that will be way too much for their smaller neighbors to handle.  The Wildcats win in a landslide.

 

Second Round

#1 North Carolina def. #8 Arkansas

The Razorback offense is really something—they can beat you inside, outside, in a half-court set or in transition—and they’ve really been finding their rhythm as we come into tourney time.  Unfortunately for them, they’re coming up against one of the few teams that gets more offensive possessions per game than they do and scores more points per game, the Tar Heels.  That’s not even factoring in the fact that UNC has put up those numbers in what is arguably the country’s strongest conference, while Arkansas played in the meh SEC.  Roy Williams and company move on.

 

#12 Middle Tennessee State def. #4 Butler

Like I said earlier, I haven’t been overly impressed with the Bulldogs this year—they’re really good, but there isn’t one particular thing that they’re really good it.  The Blue Raiders, however, play some incredible lockdown defense—they rank 21^st in the nation in points allowed per game—and they should be able to limit enough of Butler’s offense to give them a fighting chance.  If they can get some contributions from some players outside of leading scorer JaCorey Williams, I think they’re good enough to pull off this upset, and, in my opinion, they will.

 

#3 UCLA def. #6 Cincinnati

This is a quintessential offense-versus-defense match-up, and in a tournament environment, which typically favors more slow-paced, balanced teams, it would actually make sense to take the Bearcats in this one.  However, Cincy hasn’t faced a team all season that comes anywhere close to matching the amount of firepower that UCLA has on their roster.  Will the Bruins be at their high-flying best?  No, they will not.  But they’ll certainly put up enough points to get this one out of the reach of their opponents and move on to the next round.

 

#2 Kentucky def. #10 Wichita State

The Shockers have long been known as a giant-killer—in recent years, they’ve knocked off highly-ranked Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kansas, and Arizona in the tournament, usually by forcing a high amount of turnovers and relying on their battle-tested backcourt to lead them to victory.  However, with this year’s team not retaining much from those past years, and having lost all their games against so-called “elite” teams, the deck is stacked against them this season.  Kentucky will find a way to take care of the ball enough to avoid an upset and move on to the next round.

 

Sweet 16

#1 North Carolina def. #12 Middle Tennessee State

The Blue Raiders will have gotten here by relying on their excellent defense to prevent two teams that don’t really have any super-dependable scoring options from getting in a good rhythm.  The same thing cannot be said for North Carolina; Justin Jackson, Joel Berry II, and Isiah Hicks are bound to go off on any given night, and as good as MTSU are on defense, they haven’t faced a team with as many true scorers as this Tar Heels team.  UNC will move on.

 

#3 UCLA def. #2 Kentucky

This might be the best Sweet 16 game in recent memory—a battle between two of the country’s most endowed programs, both headlined by star freshmen (Ball and Malik Monk).  I was originally tempted to pick the Wildcats in this one—as much as I touted UCLA’s balance in the last round, I think that Coach Cal’s team has enough athleticism to contain most of their scorers—but the ‘Cats have had the most trouble this season with teams that push the pace, and we all know that Steve Alford’s crew will want to do that.  Besides, the Bruins have already proven that they can beat Kentucky, having done so earlier this year, in Lexington.  UCLA will win in a shoot-out.

 

Elite 8

#3 UCLA def. #1 North Carolina

Both teams have exceptional coaches, really great guard play, and some shaky defenses, especially in the paint.  That would seem to favor the Tar Heels, who could plant Jackson in the paint and pound the ball down low all day.  However, in the Tar Heels’ most significant losses—against Georgia Tech, Miami, and Duke—their opponents went non-stop on both ends of the court, forcing them into uncharacteristic mistakes that they turned into points, allowing them to overcome the onslaught of offensive options the Chapel Hill school is blessed with.  That’s an approach that I think that the Bruins can pull off well enough to carry them into their first Final Four since 2008.

 

West Region

First Round

#1 Gonzaga def. #16 South Dakota State

The Jackrabbits have been one of the better mid-major tournament teams recently—over the past five years, they’ve given big scares to Baylor (2012), Vanderbilt (2015 NIT), and Maryland (2016).  This year, however, they’re facing a Bulldog team that is simply too big, too strong, and too deep to have much of a chance.  They’ll keep it closer than the other 16 seeds, but not by much; the Zags will advance with ease.

 

#8 Northwestern def. #9 Vanderbilt

A battle of the nerds!  The Wildcats are making their first tournament appearance in history, riding on the backs of juniors Bryant McIntosh and Scottie Lindsey.  The Commodores, meanwhile, used their exceptional three-point shooting, and two clutch victories over Florida, to sneak their way into the Dance.  Bryce Drew’s team are, however, somewhat streaky with their shooting—that’s why they have 15 losses, the most ever for an at-large tournament team—and Northwestern’s defense is actually pretty damn good, ranking 34^th in the nation.  For that reason, I think that the Wildcats not only make their first tournament this year, but win their first game.  Chris Collins’s club moves on.

 

#5 Notre Dame def. #12 Princeton

A battle of the lesser nerds!  Princeton had one of the greater Ivy League seasons in recent memory, going undefeated in conference play before sweeping through the conference tournament.  They’re actually pretty similar to the Irish, too—they possess the ball well, score a lot of points from three-point land, and play decent defense.  They’ve got a really good shot at a win here.  The reason that I feel Notre Dame avoids the upset, though, is Bonzie Colson.  The Tigers haven’t seen anybody like him this season, and I think that he’ll have enough of an impact to force the Irish through to the second round.

 

#4 West Virginia def. #13 Bucknell

The Bison are one of the most accurate shooting teams in the entire country, and they actually have a victory over one of the major tournament teams, Vanderbilt.  They also have a pretty decent defense that is among the best 20% in the country.  Unfortunately, they’re not only playing a defense that is better than theirs, that will be able to limit their scoring opportunities with a full-court press, but an offense that is as proficient as it is balanced, averaging 82 points per game with no one player above 14.  Expect Bob Huggins’s team to push on to the next round.

 

#6 Maryland def. #11 Xavier

Both of these teams have underachieved this year—the Musketeers, despite a great coach in Chris Mack and a solid leading scorer in Trevon Bluiett, had some troubles after sophomore Edward Sumner tore his ACL, whereas the Terrapins had issues getting scoring from anybody outside of Melo Trimble.  Ultimately, I think who wins this game will come down to a battle between those two guards, Bluiett and Trimble, and based on his performances in last year’s tournament, I have more confidence in the Maryland man to elevate his game enough to take his team to the next round.  Maryland wins.

 

#3 Florida State def. #14 Florida Gulf Coast

This one must be a real treat for Florida fans, to get to see two in-state teams duke it out in Orlando.  “Dunk City” is still in force for FGCU, and their athleticism would cause a lot of problems for teams that rely on strong defense and rebounding in the paint.  Unfortunately for them, Leonard Hamilton has built himself a team of incredibly versatile players, led by leading scorer Dwayne Bacon, that is perhaps the most athletic team in the country.  That negates any real advantage that the Eagles have on offense, and they don’t have enough skill on defense to contain Bacon and his teammates.  The Seminoles win with ease.

 

#7 Saint Mary’s def. #10 Virginia Commonwealth

It’s unfortunate that one of these mid-majors has to say goodbye in the first round of the tournament—both of them are underrated, and execute their own unique styles to absolute perfection.  That being said, the Gaels are by far the more balanced team—headlined by center Jock Landale, Randy Bennett’s team would have been a bona-fide power in the West Coast Conference were it not for Gonzaga.  Will Wade’s bunch have a chance if they can find a shooting rhythm and use their trademark press effectively, but I simply think that St. Mary’s is too deep here.  They’ll win this one.

 

#2 Arizona def. #15 North Dakota

The Fighting Hawks were the class of the Big Sky, and senior guard Quinton Hooker, who averages almost 20 points per game, is really talented.  The only problem is that he is really the only player than can match up with the Wildcats—in every other way, Sean Miller’s team are better shooters, better defenders, and generally more athletic than their opponents.  They should be able to breeze through to the next round.

 

Second Round

#1 Gonzaga def. #8 Northwestern

The Wildcats and their fans will surely be ecstatic that they’ll have made it to the second round, but I fear that it’ll be quickly dampened by the Zags.  Northwestern’s strength is on the perimeter, and the Bulldogs have proven themselves to be pretty adept at containing good guards (their wins against Saint Mary’s prove that), and I don’t think that anybody really matches up to Mark Few’s big center, Przemek Karnowski, on Northwestern’s roster.  I expect Gonzaga to ride his shoulders in a game that should be an easy victory for the top seed.

 

#5 Notre Dame def. #4 West Virginia

The Mountaineers have given really good teams fits with their “Press Virginia” defense; their biggest wins, at home against Kansas and Baylor, saw them force more than two times the amount of turnovers as their opponents.  The issue with their opportunistic style is that when they come up against teams that take relatively good care of the basketball and are good free throw shooters, they have to rely more on their inconsistent offense.  Unfortunately for Bob Huggins, the Irish team he’ll square off against is exactly that; it’ll be close, but I expect Mike Brey’s team to win here.

 

#3 Florida State def. #6 Maryland

The Seminoles have, in my opinion, been fairly inconsistent in the second half of their season, but if there is any “elite” team that epitomizes that for the whole year, it’s the Terps.  Trimble has struggled to find his shot because of how often he is double-teamed, and in big games, his supporting cast hasn’t been able to pick up the slack.  FSU has enough athleticism to contain the high-scoring Trimble, and I just can’t see the rest of the Terrapins scoring on, or stopping, any of Leonard Hamilton’s players enough to really give them a chance in this one.  Florida State wins, and it won’t be close.

 

#2 Arizona def. #7 Saint Mary’s

This one should be a really exciting game.  In the Gaels’ four losses this season, they’ve shot a combined 38% from the field, which is… not very good.  Arizona’s defense allows teams to average about 41.5% from the field, which is good, but not good enough to avoid a good day from Saint Mary’s shooters to gift them a win.  So how does Arizona avoid an upset?  By driving the lane.  That’s where they were most effective in their biggest wins, and if Landale has any weakness, it’s that he’s not quick enough to stop quick, penetrating guards.  Sean Miller has plenty of those, and I expect the Wildcats to space out their offense and take down the Gaels with speed.

 

Sweet 16

#1 Gonzaga def. #5 Notre Dame

In my heart, I feel that my Irish can pull off a victory in this game; in reality, though, I just can’t see it happening.  Mike Brey’s team will need to have a lights out shooting night to counter the absolute dominance that the Zags are sure to wreak in the paint against ND’s small frontcourt, and considering that Mark Few’s best all-around player, Nigel Williams-Goss, is a point guard, I expect at least one of the Irish shooters to struggle.  Expect Williams-Goss and the duo of Karnowski and Zach Collins to wreak enough havoc in Notre Dame’s ranks for the top seed to advance.

 

#2 Arizona def. #3 Florida State

Florida State has been significantly more talented than each of the last two teams that it’s faced; that’s not the case here.  As the Wildcats demonstrated in their Pac 12 tournament championship victory over Oregon, the Wildcats have four or five players that can both put the ball in the basket or play lock-down defense.  That isn’t to say that the Seminoles can’t do the same—they certainly can—but I think that the inconsistencies that flared up late in FSU’s season, especially on defense, will be their downfall in this one.  Arizona moves on.

 

Elite 8

#2 Arizona def. #1 Gonzaga

Yes, I recognize that the Bulldogs have already beaten Arizona this year, on a neutral floor, nonetheless.  But loss came during one of the worst 5-game stretches of the season for the Wildcats, who also lost to Butler and struggled with Santa Clara during that period.  Now, Sean Miller’s team has seen freshman star Lauri Markkanen mature into Dirk Nowtizki-lite and has also regained star guard Allonzo Trier from suspension.  Both players will give the team an offensive boost that they didn’t have in their first game against Mark Few and company, and in their recent win against UCLA, Arizona proved they can shut down a dynamic guard like Williams-Goss.  Karnowski won’t have enough offense in him to see this team on; Arizona goes home with a win.

 

Final Four

#2 Duke def. #2 Arizona

Trier versus Kennard.  Markkanen versus Jefferson.  Those match-ups are pretty much scratches in this battle of East versus West.  Guess who’s unaccounted for, though?  Yup—Grayson Allen.  The controversial star doesn’t really seem to have anybody that matches up very well with him on the Arizona roster, so he should be able to do his thing without getting in any skirmishes.  I expect him, along with youngster Jayson Tatum, to carry his team on to the championship.

 

#3 UCLA def. #1 Kansas

I could almost copy and paste my reasoning for why I think the Bruins will beat Kentucky here, but I’ll change a couple things around, just for the sake of it—Kansas is a really balanced team with a really good offense and a meh defense, but their worst games came against teams, such as Iowa State and West Virginia, pushed the ball hard on both ends of the court.  The Jayhawks will keep it a little bit closer than the Wildcats did, because I feel Frank Mason may have a couple tricks up his… shorts?  But in the end, I think UCLA will move on to the title game.

 

National Championship

#2 Duke def. #3 UCLA

Up to this point, my rationale for why UCLA has been able to win its games is because it has the athletes, and the scorers, to execute a style of play that gave its opponents the most trouble during the regular season.  Here, though, they come up against a Duke team who has actually been undone more by stronger, more physical teams— their biggest losses, for example, came against Louisville and Florida State, who both have more length than the Blue Devils.  That isn’t to say that they won’t have an issue with the Bruins— the teams that beat Duke also have shot extraordinarily well, and Steve Alford’s team led Division One in field goal percentage this year— but UCLA’s pace won’t be as big of a problem as it was for their past opponents.  They also have a more balanced attack, with Jefferson and Tatum capable of getting inside the paint to score.  That’s a major weakness for the Bruins, and that’s the reason I feel they’ll ultimately fall— this will be an exciting, high-scoring game, and one that will, I believe, end with Duke hoisting the 6th national title in program history.

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Have any questions, comments, or debates about any of my picks?  Contact me here, or tweet me at here.

 

March Madness has now officially begun, as the Tournament Committee has finally announced the full 68-team bracket for the upcoming 2017 Division One basketball championship.  Here are my initial thoughts on this year’s competition:

Of the four teams named as #1 seeds—number one overall Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga– I think the Jayhawks have the easiest road to the Final Four.  Led by Frank Jackson, they really picked it up as the season came to a close, their conference tournament loss to TCU notwithstanding, and the top seeds in their region, Louisville and the Chris Boucher-less Oregon, don’t really strike me as very intimidating.  I think that the top seed with the hardest path is probably North Carolina, because the number two seed in their region, Kentucky, is a team that was probably in competition for a top spot, and a lot of the mid-range teams—UCLA, Cincinnati, and Wichita State—have the physicality to knock the Tar Heels off their game.

In terms of at-large teams, the fabled “Last Teams In” went to Providence, USC, Kansas State, Wake Forest, and Xavier.  Of those teams, I feel like the Wildcats were the most deserving and the Musketeers the least.  Cal and Syracuse were perhaps the most notable teams to miss out.  In my home state of Illinois, there were some mixed feelings over bids.  Northwestern finally got the monkey off their back, earning an eight seed in their first tournament appearance ever, while Illinois State missed out, despite a strong resume that saw them win the regular season title in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Now, time for the good stuff: the actual games themselves.  In the East region, I can’t wait to watch the two Texas schools, Baylor and SMU, fight it out to see who gets to square off against Duke.  The winner of that game will, I think, determine the Final Four participant, and I see the Dukies pulling it out.  In the Midwest, I believe Kansas will have a fairly smooth road to the Final Four, but I think that double-digit seeds Oklahoma State and Rhode Island have the ability to make some trouble for the big boys in that region, so watch out for them.  In the South, I think that Middle Tennessee State and Wichita State were criminally under-seeded, and they have a shot to pull off some big upsets, but in the end, I feel that the top three teams will all have a fairly easy time of it here, and that Kentucky will be the one to prevail there.  In the west, I see two ACC teams, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt, as potential troublemakers for top seed Gonzaga, but the team that will eventually topple the Bulldogs will be the Wildcats of Arizona, which will give the Final Four 3-number two seeds.  In the championship, I think it’ll be match-up of Kansas and Duke, with Jayson Tatum overcoming Frank Jackson to lead the Blue Devils to their 6^th national title.

—

These are just my initial thoughts about the bracket immediately after it was released.  Check out my full preview of the tournament on Tuesday!

The 2017 MLS season kicks off in two days, when expansion team Minnesota United FC travel to Portland to take on the Timbers.  Last season was a phenomenal one, capped off by a dramatic penalty shoot-out that saw the Seattle Sounders spoil the party for host Toronto FC.  This year looks like it will be an exciting one, as well—the addition of two new teams, Minnesota and Atlanta United FC, along with all of the new, and incredibly talented, faces that found their way to MLS this season will make the competition for the MLS Cup higher than ever.  So how will the season play out?  Here are my thoughts about what will occur in the coming year:

 

Western Conference

11. Minnesota United FC

One of two expansion teams entering the league this season, the Loons will be spearheaded by the underappreciated duo that helped ease Orlando’s transition from the USL to MLS—midfielder Kevin Molino and manager Adrian Heath.  They also reacquired the two players that made the club a NASL powerhouse, Christian Ramirez and Miguel Ibarra.  The problem is that… well, that’s about it.  This team doesn’t have a lot of money in compared to some of their rivals, and while they have certainly made countless shrewd moves that will pay off in the near future, this team just won’t be that good this year.

10. Vancouver Whitecaps

Carl Robinson is a fairly solid manager that gets more heat than he deserves, and the addition of Fredy Montero to partner with Kekuta Manneh in attack will give the ‘Caps arguably the best, if not the most versatile, attacking duo outside of Toronto.  The issue is that behind them, outside of goalie and captain David Ousted, there aren’t many players that are consistent enough to really consider Vancouver to be much more than a bottom feeder this season, particularly in midfield, which is especially important in a league that is quickly increasing its talent pool.  They need to fill those massive holes in the middle of the park before they can really get back into contention.

9. Houston Dynamo

Houston seems to be in kind of a weird place.  The man widely tipped to become their permanent manager this year, last year’s interim, Wade Barrett, was let go and replaced by former Chivas USA man Wilmer Cabrera.  They have a solid back line, anchored by captain DeMarcus Beasley and new acquisition AJ DeLaGarza, but everyone on that defense except for DeLaGarza is on the wrong side of 30.  They have a lot of young Latin talent, headlined by Mexican youth star Erik “Cubo” Torres, but none of them, Torres especially, have proven that they can perform at the MLS level.  For that reason, I expect it to take a couple years before the Dynamo get back into the play-off race.

8. Real Salt Lake

This past offseason the Royals parted with one of the greatest players in their club’s history in Javier Morales, but with Kyle Beckerman and Nick Rimando still performing at high levels, they still have a solid core in place.  Jeff Cassar and his staff actually managed to bolster the depth and talent of the midfield after Morales’s departure, signing a new DP in Albert Rusnak, securing a midfielder on loan from Liverpool, Brooks Lennon, and bringing back former youth product Luis Silva.  None of those midfielders are real scorers, though, and that’s where I think this team is the most deficient; they lack true scoring threats.  That’s the reason I can’t see them cracking the post-season this year.

7. Colorado Rapids

The Rapids were one of the best stories of last season, a team that rose from one of the league’s bottom dwellers to one of the most electric teams in the league.  Their defense will remain as solid as ever, even in the absence of Tim Howard—back-up Zac MacMath is good enough to start in a lot of other cities—but the reason they’ll stay below the line this year is because of their attack.  Colorado scored the second-fewest goals in the league last season, and with the departure of Jermaine Jones and no real major additions, it doesn’t seem like their attack will have enough to allow them to keep up with the teams in front of them.  A year after being among the best, they’ll fall just short this year.

6. San Jose Earthquakes

Dom Kinnear will be under a lot of pressure this season—his ‘Quakes haven’t made the play-offs in 4 seasons—and I think that the roster additions that he and his staff made to give Chris Wondolowski a bit of a helping hand will push them over the line.  The most important part about the newbies, headlined by Florian Jungwirth and Jahmir Hyka, is that they filled holes from back to front in the San Jose squad and that they’re proven in highly competitive professional leagues.  For those reasons, count on the ‘Quakes to top the Rapids and save Kinnear’s job.

5. Sporting Kansas City

Sporting didn’t make many changes to its well-established group this past off-season—they’ll still be marshalled by Matt Besler at the back, fronted by Dom Dwyer, and operated in the midfield by the trio of Roger Espinoza, Graham Zusi, and Benny Feilhaber.  That group alone is enough to boost Peter Vermes’s team into the play-offs, but Zusi has started to fade off as a scoring threat from his favored left flank, and so KC may struggle to get the goal-scoring they’ll need to really compete for the top.  Until they get somebody that can truly ease some of the burden off of Dwyer, they’ll be stuck in the middle of the conference.

4. Portland Timbers

Portland is set up to be one of the league’s highest goal scorers, with speedsters Darlington Nagbe and Fernando Adi leading a very versatile attack; they certainly won’t lack for offense.  However, they might have some problems on defense—stalwart Nat Borchers is retired, captain Liam Ridgewell has struggled with some injuries, and the team never really replaced Jorge Villefana after his departure for Mexico.  If Caleb Porter can sort out this team’s back line, watch out; until then, the Timbers will have to hope that their offense can hold up their defense, and come October, that’ll be a tough ask.

3. Los Angeles Galaxy

The biggest names from last year’s squad—Steven Gerrard, Robbie Keane, and manager Bruce Arena—are all starting new phases of their lives, but the Galaxy will be just fine, re-tooling around their remaining star, Giovanni dos Santos.  They re-upped Jelle van Damme to hold down the fort in back and added Romain Alessandrini to support dos Santos in attack.  The Galaxy aren’t as deep, and don’t have as much talent from top to bottom, as their great teams of years past, but Curt Onalfo and crew are still among the top five teams in the league.

2. FC Dallas

Oscar Pareja’s squad won the Supporters’ Shield last season, and even though Seattle’s off-season additions give them a slight edge to win it this year, Dallas will still be a force to be reckoned with.  Javier Morales was signed away from Real Salt Lake and will deputize for Mauro Diaz until the star returns from injury, providing the team with a great veteran midfielder to keep the attack ticking.  The team also bulked up at the back by adding Hernan Grana and Anibal Chala, which allows young up-and-comer Kellyn Acosta to play his natural position in the center of midfield.  A dangerous attack headlined by newcomer Cristian Coleman completes the team.

1. Seattle Sounders

The fact that the Sounders managed to gel so fast with mid-season signing Nicolas Lodeiro last year was impressive; that they were able to pull out a championship without their captain, Clint Dempsey, was even better.  Seattle lost a couple of important role players this off-season in Eric Friberg, Andreas Ivanschitz, and Zach Scott, but having signed younger, and arguably more talented, depth players in the forms of Harry Shipp, Will Bruin, and Gustav Svensson, Brian Schmetzer should have no problem leading this team back to the top of the conference, especially if Dempsey comes back and plays anything like he is capable of.

 

Eastern Conference

11. Philadelphia Union

I would love to move the Union up the standings—their manager, Jim Curtin, was a stud as a center back for my hometown Fire.  Andre Blake is a future USMNT starter, Alejandro Bedoya is one of the most underrated players in the current US setup, and Kegan Roseberry has shown potential to be a steady force from right back for years to come.  Outside of those guys, though, there isn’t much that the Union can rely on, whether it’s due to age (Oguchi Onyewu, Chris Pontius), injury (Maurice Edu, Joshua Yaro), or a simple lack of talent—the team doesn’t really have a ton of proven depth, either.  Expect the Union to struggle mightily this season.

10. New England Revolution

New England has some incredible creativity in its team—their attack could theoretically feature Kei Kamara, Juan Agudelo, Kelyn Rowe, Lee Nguyen, and Diago Fagundez, all extraordinarily talented players.  The problem is that all of those players are extraordinarily inconsistent, and if last season is anything to go by, they don’t gel well together at all.  The defense is also a bit of a question mark—the only truly reliable performer that they have is Chris Tierney, and it’s uncertain how the re-tooled backline, which sees former right back Andrew Farrell move in to center back, will function.  In what could be a make-or-break year for former Revs great, solid coach and solid man, Jay Heaps, I, unfortunately, see a break in their future.

9. Orlando City

I loved Orlando’s hiring of Jason Kreis last season—Adrian Heath is a good manager, but Kreis is a great one with an incredible track record.  Every other move that the team has made since then, though, has been a little curious.  Putting faith in Will Johnson to man the center of midfield, despite the former Toronto FC man struggling a bit last season, and not getting him a back-up will cost them.  Trading Brek Shea for Gilles Barnes was good value, but left a hole in their defense.  All in all, this team has some decent talent, but their roster is a mish mosh of borderline starters and guys that might be better served playing in Heath’s old system.  I just don’t think the Lions will be able to find enough consistency to be good this year.

8. Chicago Fire

The Fire have been struggling for years, but this season they should be competitive enough to make some noise in the play-off race.  They added striker Nemanja Nikolic to give speedster David Accam some help in attack and acquired midfielders Dax McCarty and Juninho to shore up the center of the park.  The Fire attack is still missing a playmaker, and there’s some questions about their defense—they have potential building blocks in Brandon Vincent and Jonathan Campbell, but the unit as a whole doesn’t inspire much confidence at the moment—so they won’t end their playoff draught, but manager Veljko Paunovic and general manager Nelson Rodriguez have this team moving in the right direction.

7. Montreal Impact

The Impact attack will be incredibly dynamic, led by the creative force of Ignacio Piatti, who will be joined by the undervalued pair of speedster Dominic Oduro and Matteo Moncosu.  The team also has Belgian international Laurent Ciman manning central defense, so they should be fine there, as well.  I’m extremely worried about their midfield, though—captain Patrice Bernier is 37, and there really isn’t anybody that stands out on either side of the ball that I think can step up and make a real difference.  Montreal were part of one of the most incredible pair of games in play-off history against their Canadian rivals in Toronto, but that lack of real presences in midfield will see them miss out on the post-season this year.

6. Atlanta United FC

There’s a lot of factors working against Atlanta this season—they’re an expansion team.  Their manager is new to MLS.  They don’t have an established goalkeeper.  Many of their new acquisitions haven’t played much recently as they waited for the new club to launch.  However, the attacking talent that Tata Martino and company have accumulated, headlined by striker Kenwyne Jones and attacking midfielder Miguel Almiron, makes it impossible for me to keep the ATL out of the play-offs.  Their defense, marshalled by Greg Garza and Michael Parkhurst, will be decent, as well, but not having a stable partner for Parkhurst, and the lack of a holding presence in front of the D, will keep them from the conference’s upper reaches.

5. New York Red Bulls

Ali Curtis and Dax McCarty have both left the club, so the ball is squarely in manager Jesse Marsch’s court this season—he’ll have to really deliver to assure that he keeps his job next year.  Having Bradley Wright-Phillips and Sacha Kljestan in your team is a good start, and if his performance in Monday’s USA U-20 victory is any indication, Tyler Adams has the potential to fill, and possibly exceed, McCarty’s contribution to the team.  However, the Red Bulls didn’t really add anybody that can ease some of Wright-Phillips’s scoring burden or help steady their inconsistent defense—Aurélien Collin isn’t getting any younger—and for those reasons, I think the Red Bulls will be good, but not good enough to crack the conference’s upper echelon.

4. Columbus Crew

Columbus was really, really bad last year—they never were able to recover from their early season drama, performing poorly at home and only picking up more points than two other teams.  Now that Kei Kamara is gone for good, though, the Crew can re-establish their efficient style and make a run at the conference’s big guns.  Ola Kamara and Federico Higuain will keep the attack ticking, Ethan Finlay will provide speed on the flanks, Wil Trapp and the underrated Tony Tchani will hold down the middle of the field, and new additions John Mensah and Zach Steffan will solidify a shaky defense.  Expect Gregg Berhalter’s crew to rebound and make the play-offs this year.

3. DC United

United has built its brand on being solid, but not spectacular, and while this team was constructed in the same vain, it is certainly the most talented team that they’ve had in former star Ben Olsen’s tenure as manager.  Patrick Mullins and Lloyd Sam went on a tear at the end of last year, and assuming that they can regain at least most of their scoring touch from last season, the rest of the roster is all set—Bill Hamid and Bobby Boswell make a fantastic goalkeeper-center back pairing, and the midfield was bolstered by the addition of former USMNT star John Harkes’s son, Ian.  United won’t be flashy, but they’ll get the job done more often than not and crack the top three in the conference.

2. New York City FC

Patrick Vieira’s squad definitely has some issues—there isn’t a ton of depth, and the defense will probably not win any awards anytime soon—but there’s a lot to like about this team.  They upgraded at goalie by trading for former Fire shot-stopper Sean Johnson while getting younger around maestro Andrea Pirlo in midfield.  They also added former Portland winger Rodney Wallace to an attack that already boasts one of the best strikers (David Villa) and young wide players (Jack Harrison) in the game.  Their D won’t be steady enough to see them topple Toronto at the top of the conference, but you can certainly expect that the Blues to make some noise in their attempt to do so.

1. Toronto FC

Almost nothing has changed from the team that lost last year’s MLS Cup, a game they arguably deserved to win—squad member Will Johnson is the only loss—and that’s certainly a great thing for Greg Vanney and company.  If anything, this squad is slightly stronger, with new signings Chris Mavinga and Victor Vazquez pushing the 11 returning starters for playing time.  Of course, it also doesn’t hurt when you have three of the league’s best, and biggest, players in Sebastian Giovinco, Joy Altidore, and captain Michael Bradley.  With little turnover and lots of talent and motivation, Toronto will certainly be the team to beat in the East.

 

Playoffs

Eastern Conference

Conference Quarterfinals

LA Galaxy over San Jose

Portland over Sporting KC

Conference Semifinals

Seattle over Portland

FC Dallas over LA Galaxy

Conference Final

FC Dallas over Seattle

 

Western Conference

Conference Quarterfinals

Atlanta over DC United

Columbus over New York Red Bulls

Conference Semifinals

Toronto over Atlanta

NYCFC over Columbus

Conference Final

Toronto over NYCFC

 

MLS Cup

FC Dallas over Toronto

 

Awards

MVP: Sebastian Giovinco, Toronto FC

Coach of the Year: Gerardo Martino, Atlanta United FC

Rookie of the Year: Ian Harkes, DC United

Newcomer of the Year: Hector “Tito” Villalba, Atlanta United FC

Surprise of the Year: Javier Morales, FC Dallas