Yesterday marked one month since the beginning of the 2016 free agency period for the National Football League.  While the debate over whether building through the draft or free agency is the better move, teams across the country dropped hundreds of millions of dollars on players that they hope will make their teams better in the coming seasons.  Whether the signings pan out or not, of course, remains to be seen; here, I attempt to bring some semblance of organization to a month filled with transactions and unexpected drama while analyzing some of the most impactful moves so far this off-season.

 

 

Big Signings

Malik Jackson to Jaguars- 6 years, $90 million

Brock Osweiler to Texans- 4 years, $72 million

Two of the three most expensive of this year’s free agent signings are former Denver Broncos.  The first, Jackson, is a true three-down defensive tackle that is capable of providing an effective pass rush while staying solid against the run.  There are some minor worries about his motivation, considering that he’s admitted that his decision to leave the defending champs for the lowly Jags was entirely due to money, and also about his consistency- the most amount of snaps per game he played before last season was 55%- but if the Tennessee grad lives up to his potential, Jaguars GM Dave Caldwell couldn’t have picked a better player to spend a lot of his cap space on.

The second of the two ex-champs, Brock Osweiler, was a surprise defection from the champions- he was slated to be the full-time starter after the retirement of the legendary Peyton Manning.  However, perhaps slighted by the team’s decision to bench him in favor of the aging Manning once the postseason started, Osweiler moved on to a new challenge in Houston.  The pressure on head coach Bill O’Brien to get him to produce will be heavy, considering the price tag, and I think that it will be money well spent- Osweiler is a freak athlete with a strong arm, and with great weapons like Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal, I expect the QB to develop into the greatest gunslinger in the Texans’ brief history.

 

Oliver Vernon to Giants- 5 years, $85 million

Janoris Jenkins to Giants- 5 years, $62.5 million

This was the first off-season in recent memory that the Giants had a lot of cap room to play around with, and they certainly filled it up fast by attempting to address their porous defense, which finished last in the league in yards allowed last season.  To help their pass rush, they took Vernon from Miami with a contract that has more guaranteed money than JJ Watt’s.  Spending a lot on the former Dolphin wasn’t wrong, because he is one of the game’s most consistent pass rushers, and at 25, he has yet to enter the prime of his career, so he is due to improve on his 7-sacks-a-year average.  However, to make a guy that may turn out to be a player that’s on the field in mostly passing situations one of the highest paid defensive lineman in the league seems a bit excessive.  I don’t doubt that Vernon will produce, but I can’t see him providing as much as his contract warrants he should.

Sadly for New York, I think that their other major signing, Jenkins, will give the team another defender that won’t live up to the expectations brought on by his high salary.  The former Rams cornerback is a playmaker, no doubt- since being drafted in 2012, his 34 passes defended is good for 7^th most in the league, and his 10 interceptions ranked 12^th– but his aggressiveness has also left him prone to big plays, something the G-Men were all too familiar with last season.  Putting him opposite another aggressive corner in Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie does not serve to highlight Jenkins’ strengths, and will he could help improve the Giants’ secondary, he’s just as likely to leave them just as bad as last year.

 

Kelechi Osemele to Raiders- 5 years, $58.5 million

Russell Okung to Broncos- 5 years, $53 million

Often unheralded in the national media, offensive lineman got in on the spending fest this off-season, too.  The OL that got the most money was Osemele, who left Baltimore for Oakland to get a deal that will see him receive an average salary of just less than $10 million a year.  I think this is a brilliant signing for the Raiders- Osemele was overshadowed by his All-Pro teammate, left guard Marshall Yanda, but the youngster was arguably the Ravens’ best offensive lineman last season.  He gave up only one sack at left guard before finishing the final four games of the season with a seamless transition to left tackle.  This versatility, combined with the 26 year-old’s immense strength and strong run blocking ability, make him, in my opinion, one of the best acquisitions of this off-season.

When I first saw the Russell Okung signing, I thought it made little sense at first- Okung was a very solid left tackle for his old employers, the Seattle Seahawks, but it seemed as if his ability had waned in recent years, and that some of that waning could be attributed to the injuries that the former Oklahoma State star has suffered with recently.  He is definitely better than the man he was slated to replace, Ryan Clady, but with Clady and his $9.5 million salary still on the books, I just didn’t think signing Okung was necessary, especially considering all the free agents that Denver could have put money towards.  However, with Clady now a New York Jet, Okung looks like a solid pickup for the defending champs- for slightly more money than they would have paid Clady, they’ll get far better production.

 

Damon Harrison to Giants- 5 years, $46.25 million

Kelvin Beachum to Jaguars- 5 years, $45 million

These two are, perhaps, the most intriguing signings of the 2016 off-season.  The first of them, Harrison, is leaving the Jets for the Giants in a deal that is sure to thrill the former undrafted free agent.  Since becoming a starter back in 2013, Harrison has been one of the best defensive tackles in the business, picking up 72 tackles and an All-Pro selection by Pro Football Focus.  The problem with Harrison is that at 350 pounds, he is only a two-down player, and a base salary of $9.25 million is a little steep for someone in his position.  Unlike some experts, though, I feel like Harrison’s impact to help improve the Giants’ 24^th ranked defense will help make his high salary extremely worth it; the Jets will regret letting him go to their very close rivals.

Beachum, meanwhile, got paid a ton of money by the Jaguars and might not even be guaranteed a starting spot along their o-line.  The incumbent starter at left tackle, former first round pick Luke Joeckel, has struggled, and Beachum was brought in, effectively, to give him competition for the spot.  The way his contract is structured- Beachum will get paid a base salary of $4.5 million in his first year before a sharp increase in years 2 through 5- is ideal for the Jags, but his signing is puzzling at best and an extremely high risk at worst.  If Joeckel retains his spot, the Jaguars spent $4.5 million on a lineman that will barely play.  If Beachum wins the job but doesn’t play well, they might be forced to move on from both him and Joeckel, who will surely be offended at being benched.  If Beachum wins the job and plays well, the team will essentially have to own up to the fact that they messed up by picking Joeckel so early in the draft.

 

Other Big Signings:

Alex Mack to Falcons- 5 years, $45 million

Brandon Brooks to Eagles- 5 years, $40 million

Sean Smith to Raiders- 4 years, $38 million

Bruce Irvin to Raiders- 4 years, $37 million

Marvin Jones to Lions- 4 years, $40 million

Coby Fleener to Saints- 3 years, $36 million

 

 

Underrated Signings

Eric Weddle to Ravens- 4 years, $26 million

I’m a huge fan of Weddle’s- his presence upped the Chargers from a below average defense to an average one, and even though he’s 31, his performance the last couple of seasons has shown that he certainly has a lot left in the tank.  Weddle is a strong tackler and a big playmaker that will provide the Ravens with a steady safety for the first time since Ed Reed’s departure, and he will certainly help bolster the team’s ranking in points allowed per game (24^th last season).

 

Robert Ayers to Buccaneers- 3 years, $19.5 million

A former first-round draft pick out of the University of Tennessee, Ayers is definitely not a star, and at 30 years old, he probably never will be.  But the former Giant has been steadily improving every facet of his game as he’s gotten older- he became a sturdy presence against the run with the team that drafted him, Denver, and had a career-high 9.5 sacks in New York last season despite playing in only 12 games.  He is also very versatile, having played defensive end, defensive tackle, and outside linebacker at points during his career.  That the Buccaneers were able to get him on a relatively short contract, for less than $7 million a year, is a real coup.

 

Evan Mathis to Cardinals- 1 year, $4.01 million

Mathis’s showings in Denver made him appear as if he was nowhere near the dominant force that he was during his prime years in Philadelphia, but that can be accounted for- Mathis signed with Denver fairly late (August 25) and so had limited time to adjust to the scheme he was asked to play while struggling with aches and pains throughout the year.  On track to being 100% in training camp after off-season ankle surgery, the former All-Pro will give the Cardinals a stud opposite Mike Iupati at left guard for a salary that is only slightly higher than what he made last season.

 

Jared Cook to Packers- 1 year, $2.75 million

Cook has definitely not been the most durable guy in the world, and hasn’t put up the best stats considering his status as one of the most athletic tight ends in the league.  However, the former Ram is now healthy, and is surely over the moon at the chance to play with an elite quarterback like Aaron Rodgers. I think that Cook will become one of the Packer star’s top targets, just as Jermichael Finley was in his prime, and fulfill the potential that the Rams had hoped he could provide.

 

 

Overrated Signings:

Mohamed Sanu to Falcons- 5 years, $32.5 million

I actually really like Sanu- he’s very fast and very versatile, and before this season, I felt that he should be the number two guy in Cincy behind AJ Green.  However, I think that paying almost $6.5 million for a guy that isn’t among the best #2 options in the league is a little bit steep, especially when a guy like Rishard Matthews, a player whose talent I see as similar to Sanu’s, is making $5 million a year.

 

Chris Ivory to Jaguars- 5 years, $32 million

Last year, the Jags drafted Alabama running back TJ Yeldon, who averaged 4.1 yards per carry beyond an offensive line that didn’t exactly set the world on fire, showing that Yeldon is both an explosive and powerful back.  The Jacksonville management, however, obviously doesn’t agree with that, and decided to spend over $6 million on Ivory.  The former Jet is a good back, but he’s expensive for a running back in an age of passing and will stunt the young Yeldon’s growth.

 

Travis Benjamin to Chargers- 4 years, $24 million

Yet another case of a team overpaying for a speedy receiver that doesn’t deserve his salary; Benjamin had a fantastic year in Cleveland, playing with below average quarterbacks while posting a 996/5 line in a contract year.  The problem with Benjamin is that while he has shown some great big play ability, he hasn’t been very consistent, and his performance faded down the stretch.  Benjamin is good, but he’s not $6 million a year good.

 

Casey Heyward to Chargers- 3 years, $15.3 million

I don’t think that this deal is as bad as the other ones listed here, but it’s still a questionable one.  As a Bears fan, I got to see my fair share of Heyward in a Packers jersey, and he didn’t impress me all that much, especially for a guy that was so highly touted coming out of college.  San Diego also paid Heyward more than the guy who he is effectively replacing, Patrick Robinson, who is, in my opinion, a better and more productive corner than the former Green Bay man.

 

 

Key Re-Signings:

Kirk Cousins, Redskins- 1 year, $19.95 million (franchise tag)

It took a while for the ‘Skins to decide between Robert Griffin III and Cousins as to which quarterback would be made the fact of the franchise, and it seems that their patience with the former Michigan State star has finally paid off.  After a rocky start to the year, Cousins led his team into the playoffs with a phenomenal season, and he figures to be the long term answer at QB the team has been after for a long, long time.

 

Von Miller, Broncos- 1 year, $14.1million (franchise tag)

Miller confirmed his status as one of the league’s elite defensive players in the Super Bowl, finishing with six tackles, two-and-a-half sacks, and one MVP award.  With Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler off to new pastures, the Broncos will be more of a defense-oriented team than ever before, and having Miller back in the fold ensures that they will still be a force to be reckoned with next season.

 

Alshon Jeffery, Bears- 1 year, $14.6 million (franchise tag)

The first pick in the 2012 draft for the Bears, former Boise State star Shea McClellin, didn’t turn out so hot- he struggled to find a position in Chicago before departing to New England this off-season.  Their second round pick, Jeffery, is a much different story- the former South Carolina receiver has developed into one of the league’s best pass catchers and is, by far, the team’s most talented player.  Keeping him in Chicago gives Jay Cutler a go-to weapon this upcoming season, and hopefully for many more to come.

 

Eric Berry, Chiefs- 1 year, $10.81 million (franchise tag)

Berry is a truly phenomenal story- he was one of the league’s top safeties before being diagnosed with leukemia, and once he beat the cancer, he returned to become…  one of the league’s top safeties.  His determination, energy, and leadership are unparalleled, and the Chiefs are lucky to be blessed with such an amazing player and an amazing man.

 

Doug Martin, Buccaneers- 5 years, $35.75 million

Signing Martin to a big deal was seemingly out of the question before this season started, when the Bucs declined the fifth-year option on the running back’s rookie deal.  However, with the pressure, and spotlight, on Jameis Winston instead of Martin, the former Boise State stud played in all 16 games for the first time since his rookie year, picking up 1,402 yards on the ground to go along with his 7 total touchdowns.  Making sure he stayed in Tampa ensured that the Bucs will have a balanced attack as long as he and Winston stay in the pewter and red.

 

 

Best Unsigned Players:

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (Teams in play: Jets, Broncos, 49ers)

It’s expected the Fitzpatrick will re-sign with the Jets- he and receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have a great relationship, and both parties seem willing to bend a little to get a deal done.  However, considering how long the two sides have been debating the terms of a contract, there’s always a chance that a team searching for a QB, like Denver, or a dark horse team looking for competition, like San Francisco, gets in on the sweepstakes for the Harvard grad.

 

Leon Hall, CB (Teams in play: Bengals, Titans, Jaguars)

Hall was once an All-Pro cornerback, but the 31 year-old former first-round pick no longer has the pace to deal with the league’s top wideouts.  However, his performances last year show that he still has some gas left in his tank, and his veteran savvy would be valuable for any young secondary.  There’s an off chance that he returns to Cincinnati, but I expect him to eventually sign with either Jacksonville or Tennessee, up-and-coming teams that have (seemingly) solid offenses with inexperienced defenses.

 

Greg Hardy, DE (Teams in play: Unknown)

Hardy is sure to generate at least a little bit of interest- he is a true physical specimen that showed that even when the world is against him, he can still be a fearsome pass rusher.  However, Hardy’s history off the field, paired with recent comments that he made to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, have, rightfully, turned many teams off.  It’ll be interesting to see how his market changes throughout the spring and summer months.

One of the most amazing things about professional baseball is its incredible parity.  In other sports, you can count on the same teams rising to the top virtually every year- the Spurs and whatever team LeBron plays for in basketball and the Packers and Patriots in the NFL- but that isn’t the case with baseball.  Last year’s World Series participants, the Royals and Mets, were teams that were branded as perennial strugglers as recent as three years ago; this year, they go into the season among the favorites.  The Red Sox missed the playoffs, something seemingly unacceptable for a team that has one of the largest payrolls in the game.  Both of those facts, and many others, make it plainly obvious that baseball is really, really hard to predict.  You never really know which teams will show up and be contenders and which ones will be pretenders.  This is my best shot at predicting the upcoming 2016 season:

 

NL

NL West

Giants (#3)

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Padres

Rockies

The top three teams in this division all have legitimate shots at winning the division and making a run at a World Series title, and a good reason for that is each team’s pitching- the Giants will be spearheaded by their pitching trio of Madison Bumgarner and new signees Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, the D-Backs by major acquisitions Zach Greinke and Shelby Miller, and the Dodgers by ace lefty Clayton Kershaw and the phenomenal bullpen headlined by Kenley Jansen.  Each staff is pretty equal talent-wise, so the difference, I think, will come from the lineup.  The Giants, who have Buster Posey, Denard Span, and Hunter Pence to lean on, seem to have a more balanced rivals, and I feel that they’ll sneak into the playoffs as the division winner with the worst record in the NL.  The bottom two teams… well, there just aren’t a lot to them.  The Padres have James Shields and Matt Kemp, and while both are talented players, neither of them, nor anybody else in San Diego, are consistent enough to warrant putting them higher in the division.  The Rockies can boast of their two bona-fide stars, Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez, but not much else- their pitching staff is nothing to write home about, especially in the thin air of Colorado, and that will make them one of the worst teams in the whole league despite the efforts of their stars.

 

NL Central

Cubs (#1)

Cardinals (#1 WC)

Pirates

Brewers

Reds

The Cubs have gotten a lot of publicity this offseason, and it has certainly been warranted- Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein filled the teams holes (2^nd base, outfielder, 3^rd starter, long reliever) about as perfectly as they could have, poaching Jason Heyward and John Lackey from their rivals down in St. Louis and making them the team to beat in this division.  However, despite the losses of two important players, you can’t count the Cards out- they performed unbelievably well last season, and that was without righty Adam Wainwright available to front the rotation.  His return, and the addition of Mike Leake, will allow the Cards to grab the first wild card spot with relative ease.  I feel bad leaving the Pirates out of the playoffs, because Andrew McCutchen is phenomenal and Francisco Liriano has been wowing me since he was fanning countless White Sox as a member of the Twins, but I just don’t think that the rest of their lineup is good enough to carry them to the playoffs.  At the bottom, both the Brewers and the Reds have lineups that feature some good players- Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Bruan for Milwaukee, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce for Cincy- but both teams’ pitching staffs are not that good, Cincinnati’s especially so.  They’ll both land top-ten picks in the 2017 draft.

 

NL East

Mets (#2)

Nationals (#2 WC)

Marlins

Braves

Phillies

The Mets were somewhat of a surprise last year, but they won’t be creeping up on anybody this year- with a new middle infield featuring Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera, plus full years from Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Harvey, they might be even better on paper than they were during last year’s World Series run.  That’s not to say that Washington won’t try to make things interesting again, though- with veteran manager Dusty Baker at the helm and megastar Bryce Harper leading the way, the Nats will force their way into the playoffs, where they should have been last season.  If everything goes right for Miami, there’s a chance that Don Mattingly and co. can sneak their way into a wild card spot, but the back end of the Marlins’ rotation just doesn’t do it for me, and I think they’ll start to fade right before the trading deadline.  As for the Braves and Phillies, Atlanta have two solid pieces to build around in Freddie Freeman and Julio Tehran, while the Phils are looking to rebuild with prospects acquired through trades and the draft.  That’s really all there is to say- these two team will be whipping posts for the division’s elite.

 

AL

AL West

Astros (#3)

Rangers (#2 WC)

Mariners

Angels

Athletics

This division always manages to confound me- the Astros, who were perennial doormats for years, weren’t supposed to do much last year, and the Mariners, with their addition of Nelson Cruz, were.  Now, the ‘Stros, led by their young core of Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, look to be legit playoff contenders for years to come.  Coming in behind them will be the Rangers, who will offset the fact that Yu Darvish is on the DL to start the season by getting a full season from Cole Hamels, which will allow Texas to make the playoffs as a wild card team for the second straight season.  The Mariners have some extremely talented players- Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, and the previously mentioned Cruz are just a few, but as a whole, the team lacks consistency, and the back end of their rotation isn’t very good.  They’ll be in the race for a wild card spot for a while, but just don’t have enough to get over the hump.  The Angels have the lineup of a playoff team, but their pitching staff beyond Garrett Richards just doesn’t do it for me- I think they’ll struggle to get outs, and therefore struggle to make the final 10.  Oakland has an odd team- if everybody could exceed their potential, they could make some noise in the playoff race, but beyond Sonny Gray, it just doesn’t seem like anyone is capable of doing that.  The A’s will continue to rebuild and snag a top-5 pick.

 

AL Central

Royals (#2)

Tigers (#1 WC)

White Sox

Indians

Twins

I think that this is the toughest division in baseball- it is one of two divisions, along with the AL East, in which every team has a decent shot at the playoffs, and there’s no one team that’s enormously better than another.  The defending champs managed to keep an important piece of their core by re-signing Alex Gordon and have an extremely deep pitching staff that will allow them to pull away from the rest of the pack.  The back end of Detroit’s rotation is a little bit unstable, but owner Mike Illitch spent some major dollars to acquire a great pitcher in Jordan Zimmermann and a powerful outfielder in Justin Upton that should help Detroit recover from last season’s abominable season.  My beloved White Sox are good enough to be in the thick of the playoff race, I just don’t think that they’ll get enough from their outfield offensively, and I’m worried that the drop-off that the rotation suffered last year is a sign that maybe it doesn’t quite have the balance that it should, so I think they’ll miss out (for more on the Sox, please click here).  I picked the Indians to win the division last year, and think that their top three pitchers are the best trio in the division, but just can’t see them getting enough production from their lineup to get them into the playoff conversation.  The Twins had a good record last year, but many stats showed that they got very, very lucky, very, very often.  They have some good players, but no real boppers in their lineup, and their pitching staff just doesn’t impress me- I think they’ll fall back to earth this season.

 

AL East

Blue Jays (#1)

Red Sox

Rays

Orioles

Yankees

Losing David Price to a division rival certainly won’t help the Blue Jays, but full seasons of Marcus Stroman and Troy Tulowitzki definitely will.  The back end of the rotation makes me a little bit nervous, but I think that the team has a lineup that is just so unbelievably loaded that it can be made up for easily; so easily, in fact, that I think they’ll be the AL’s #1 seed.  Price moving to Boston was a big signing for the organization, but I feel that the performance of last year’s rotation, sans Eduardo Rodriguez, was closer to being the norm than it was an aberration, and that the offense relies just a tad too much on a 40 year-old David Ortiz to be considered a playoff team.  Tampa Bay seems to have a fantastic rotation and a vastly underrated bullpen, but lineup anchor is in the middle of a slow, steady decline, and there’s really nobody else in the order that really stands out.  The Orioles are going all-in with the signings of Yovani Gallardo and Pedro Alvarez, and while I think that the Orioles will score a lot of runs with their power this season, beyond Gallardo, I’m not all that impressed with any of the Baltimore pitchers, and I think they’ll struggle, just like they did last season.  As for the Yankees, the pitching staff seems to either be inconsistent or in disarray, and I don’t think that many of the aging core they count on to provide offense will have seasons as productive as they did last year; those things will see the Yanks fall from a wild card spot last year to a top-10 pick this year.

 

 

Awards

NL

NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks

Even though I don’t though I don’t think that the D-Backs will be making the playoffs this season, I think Goldschmidt will pick up some well-deserved hardware- he’s been arguably the best player not named Mike Trout over the past three seasons, and now that he’ll finally be a member of a contending team, he’ll be recognized for his efforts.

 

NL Cy Young: Madison Bumgarner, Giants

Two starters were signed to take some of the pressure off of MadBum, and I think that’ll do wonders for his stats.  The lanky lefty will have to battle his division rivals, Greinke and Kershaw, for the award, but will ultimately prevail to win his first Cy Young.

 

NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, Dodgers

Seager is heavily favored to win the NL ROY award, and with good reason- the brother of Mariner’s third baseman Kyle Seager is a freak athlete that is good both at the bat and in the field.  Should be an easy victory.

 

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals

The St. Louis ace suffered a gruesome injury last spring while running out of the batter’s box, and if he were healthy all season, the Cards might have performed better in the playoffs.  He’s won 20 and 19 games, respectively, his last two full seasons, and I expect him to approach those totals again this season.

 

NL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Cubs

It’s one thing to have unbelievably high expectations, as the Cubs do this season, and another thing to meet them; I feel that Maddon’s wacky yet easygoing personality will be a perfect foil to said expectations and will win him the award over a former Cub skipper, Dusty Baker.

 

NL Best Offseason Acquisition: Zach Greinke, Diamondbacks

Seeing Greinke leave what seemed like a potentially powerful Dodgers team for an underachieving Diamondbacks one seemed baffling at first, but now, I feel the deal is a win-win: Greinke gets the last massive contract of his unbelievable career, and Arizona gets a bona fide ace for many years to come.

 

NL Worst Offseason Acquisition: Ben Zobrist, Cubs

This isn’t to say that Zobrist isn’t a very talented player that fits Joe Maddon’s ideal vision of a player- a patient hitter that is adept in multiple positions- because he is all of those things.  I just feel that paying $56 million for a 35 year-old guy that doesn’t play a premium position is a little much, even for a team as rich as the North Siders.

 

AL

AL MVP: Carlos Correa, Astros

Last year the young shortstop showed that he is capable of carrying a team to the playoffs.  Even though pitchers will now have had a year to figure out his weaknesses, I think that the talented youngster will continue to improve, eventually beating out fellow shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and a resurgent Miguel Cabrera for the MVP.

 

AL Cy Young: Cole Hamels, Rangers

This was a toughie, since guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, and Chris Archer are all studs that might not warrant any conversation in the Cy Young award race.  The transition that the former Phillie made to the Junior Circuit last season was nothing short of amazing, and I think that Hamels will continue to be a top-flight performer in his first full season in Texas.

 

AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton, Twins

Buxton is an absolute animal that has the athletic ability to fit in playing any sport, and his closest competitor for the award, teammate and former Korean League star Byung Ho Park, will take some time to adjust to major league pitching.

 

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Alex Cobb, Rays

Cobb was slated to be the ace of last year’s Rays team before ending up having Tommy John surgery.  With Chris Archer around to take some of the pressure off of the lefty, I think that Cobb bounces back and has a career-year and keeps the Rays in playoff contention through late September.

 

AL Manager of the Year: Brad Ausmus, Tigers

The Tigers were a high-priced flop last season, and that put Ausmus under a lot of fire from many media members.  Even though I don’t think too highly of Detroit’s moves this offseason, I feel that the success of the Tigers, in the face of last year’s disappointing finish, will win Ausmus his plaudits.

 

AL Best Offseason Acquisition: David Price, Red Sox

I feel that Dave Dombrowski overpaid a tad for the star lefty, but he gives the team a true number one, something that their unstable rotation sorely lacked last season.  Price has been nothing if not consistent, and will almost certainly bring that consistency to Boston.

 

AL Worst Offseason Acquisition: Ryan Madson, Athletics

A lot of the big money that was thrown around this off season was distributed by National League teams, and there weren’t any really glaringly bad moves in the AL.  The A’s addition of Madson, though, seems to make very little sense- a budget-conscious, non-contending team handing out $22 million to a 35 year-old reliever is very out of Billy Beane and company’s wheelhouse.

 

 

Playoffs

NL

Wildcard

Cardinals over Nationals

The quality of this game shows how talented the NL’s elite are this year- the traditionally powerful Cards matching up against the Bryce Harper-led Nats.  Adam Wainwright outduels Max Scherzer, and a 3-run Matt Holiday homer pushes St. Louis on.

 

Division Series

Cubs over Cardinals

The Cubs had a fairly easy time with the Cards in last year’s NLDS, which made sense, considering how hot the Cubbies were and how banged up Mike Matheny’s squad was.  Both teams have improved this offseason, and while having a full team at his disposal will certainly help Matheny, I think the Cubs just have too much talent.  They move on.

 

Giants over Mets

Both of these teams have pitching staffs that are good enough to allow them to reach this point.  In a bummer for the Mets, though, the Giants not having to play in the Wild Card game means that Madison Bumgarner can make two starts, and I just don’t think that New York can do enough to overcome him to prevail in this series.  The G-Men move on to keep the even-year theory alive.

 

Championship Series

Cubs over Giants

Watching Jake Arrieta square off against MadBum will be one of the best pitching duels in the past decade of playoff baseball, and while the Giants may be more playoff-tested than the young Cubs, I just think that the Lovable Losers have a more powerful, and more consistent offense then San Fran does.  Chicago moves on.

 

 

AL

Wildcard

Tigers over Rangers

I’m a big Jordan Zimmermann fan- in fact, I predicted that he would win the Cy Young award last season- and even though the Tigers’ righty-heavy lineup will be ideal for Rangers star Yu Darvish to exploit, I think that the former Nationals starter will shut down Texas, and that Detroit’s slugging trio- Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, and JD Martinez- will find a way to power the Tigers to the ALDS.

 

Division Series

Blue Jays over Tigers

The problem for Detroit will be that, after Zimmermann, they don’t really have anybody to count on in their rotation.  Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez are both obviously on the downturn of their careers, and the Mike Pelfrey/Daniel Norris duo won’t intimidate the powerful Blue Jays.  Toronto advances to their second straight ALCS.

 

Royals over Astros

A rematch of last year’s highly entertaining LDS, in which Houston went up 2-1 in the series before losing the next two games, will surely bring some more excitement this year.  Even though Houston has gotten better after adding Doug Fister and Ken Giles, I just feel that the Royals have enough magic left in them to overcome the young ‘Stros.

 

Championship Series

Blue Jays over Royals

As good, and as pesky, as the Royals are, the Jays will want revenge for last year’s ALCS.  While the Jays have lost David Price, I think that the Royals replacing Greg Holland and Ryan Madson with Joakim Soria, Johnny Cueto with Ian Kennedy, and losing Ben Zobrist to free agency are far bigger hurdles to overcome than losing Price.  The Jays will advance after an entertaining series.

 

World Series

Blue Jays over Cubs

Part of me want my hometown Cubs to break their seemingly never-ending World Series drought this year.  The White Sox fan in me wants that drought to extend one more year.  Regardless of whatever I’m feeling, I think that it’s pretty clear that while the Cubs may have the more well-known, and well paid, players, that the Jays are a better team.  This one won’t end in a walk-off, but it will certainly be a dramatic, back-and-forth series that Toronto and Series MVP Jose Bautista take in 6 games.

To say that the NCAA men’s basketball regular season was unpredictable might be a drastic understatement.  The top ten teams in the country lost a combined 83 games, and the top four seeds have lost a combined 23 games; both of those are the most in history.  Basically, there hasn’t been one major power that has separated itself from the rest.  Conference tournaments saw many teams that underwhelmed during the regular season crash the Dance, and they come in hungry to continue their unlikely run towards a national championship.  The unpredictability will surely make for a very intriguing tournament- here’s how I think it’ll play out:

 

South Region

First Round

#1 Kansas def. #16 Austin Peay

The number one overall seed will not lose in the first round.  Moving on.

 

#9 Connecticut def. #8 Colorado

Colorado has looked like a team on the verge of breaking through to top-tier contender status for the past few years, and this season was no exception- they have a great post player in senior Josh Scott, and the team as a whole is filled with solid defenders and rebounders.  However, the Pac 12 wasn’t really filled with great teams this year, and there were quite a few games when the Buffalos played down to their competition.  UConn is less talented then the Buffs, but they are riding momentum after their win in the American conference tournament.  Kevin Ollie’s Huskies advance.

 

#5 Maryland def. #12 South Carolina State

I’ve thought that Maryland was the frontrunner for the national championship since Day 1, but the end of the season wasn’t good to the Terrapins, and star recruit Diamond Stone did not exactly live up to expectations.  But Stone on an off day can still be a force to be reckoned with, and the presence of veteran guards Melo Trimble and Rasheed Suliamon will stabilize the team and allow them to fend off an upset bid from SCSU.  Mark Turgeon and co. move on.

 

#4 California def. #13 Hawaii

California is an extremely frustrating team- Cuonzo Martin’s skills at recruiting brought in young athletes that are extremely talented, athletes that could eventually be NBA regulars- but because of their youth and inexperience, they have been inconsistent.  Hawaii is a team that seems like it could be a perfect foil to the Golden Bears- they are a cohesive unit that is good enough on defense to limit their opponents’ scoring ability and athletic enough to keep pace with them- but I think that Cal’s talent will just be too much for them to overcome.

 

#6 Arizona def. #11 Wichita State

This was such a difficult game for me to pick- Ron Baker and Fred Van Fleet form one of the best and most experienced guard tandems in the country, and Coach Gregg Marshall is definitely going to have a plan to slow down the Wildcats.  But Sean Miller’s team are dangerous, especially as a team that feels that its talent warrants a higher seed.  This one will be incredibly entertaining, and I think that Miller’s veterans from past teams, along with freshman stud Allonzo Trier, will do enough to push past the Shockers.

 

#3 Miami (Florida) def. #14 Buffalo

The Bulls did well, making it to the tournament for the second straight season despite the departure of Coach Bobby Hurley.  However, they got a bad matchup in Miami- Jim Larranaga’s team is loaded with top-notch talent from top to bottom, as evidenced by their high finish in the extremely competitive ACC, and I just don’t think that anything that Buffalo could throw at the Hurricanes would slow them down enough to pick up an upset.  Miami wins, with ease.

 

#7 Iowa def. #10 Temple

Iowa’s season virtually mirrored the season that its football team had- both teams started the season on fire, contrary to the expectations that many people had for the teams.  Then, as the season drew to a close, both teams fought with dignity, but seemed to slump from their early season high.  Jared Uthoff and his teammates could have been as high as a two seed, but lost a couple of late season games they should have won, including a Big Ten tournament loss to Illinois.  However, now that they’re out of conference play, where their tram didn’t match up well with many of their opponents, Iowa has a chance to find its groove, and they start their quest to make a run through the tournament with a win over a solid, but slightly less talented Temple team.

 

#2 Villanova def. #15 UNC Asheville

I’ll be the first person to admit that I’m not a huge fan of Villanova- they seem to be a far better regular season team than they are a tournament team.  However, I feel like this year’s team has been relatively consistent throughout the season, and that will make all the difference against a UNC Asheville team that will be ready to try and make the Wildcats’ tourney struggles continue.  Jay Wright’s team breezes into the next round.

 

Second Round

#1 Kansas def. #8 Connecticut

In the last round, Connecticut will have been able to get by Colorado due to some March Magic, but the magic will run out pretty quickly for the Huskies- Kansas is better and deeper at every position, and it isn’t really all that close, either.  The Jayhawks dominate and make their way to the Sweet 16.

 

#5 Maryland def. #4 California

An intriguing battle between two exceedingly talented teams that may have fallen a little short of expectations.  There aren’t many upperclassmen in this matchup, but the two that could have the biggest impact on this game both happen to play for Maryland.  As with the last game, Melo Trimble and Rasheed Suliamon lead their team on to the next round.

 

#6 Arizona def. #3 Miami (Florida)

As I said before, I think that Sean Miller’s team can be dangerous because of their lower seeding- it relieves pressure and allows them to try to utilize their explosiveness.  Miami is an extremely good team, and I think that if they met anyone else in their region in this game I would pick them to advance, but I can’t shake the fact that Miami has never really been deep in the tournament before, and that Miller, and the other Wildcat vets, have.  Arizona in a shootout.

 

#2 Villanova def. #7 Iowa

This is a toughie.  It would have been a close game in favor of the Hawkeyes if they were in-form, because ‘Nova’s tough guards would be able to counteract the interior presence of Jared Uthoff and his gang well enough to keep it close.  However, the Big Ten team ended the season in a relative slump, and Villanova played well enough to warrant consideration as a number one seed.  The Wildcats advance.

 

Sweet 16

#5 Maryland def. #1 Kansas

My loyalty to Maryland really shines bright in this game- the Terps have been relatively consistent all year, and the Jayhawks have been good enough to survive adversity in the Big 12 and use their amazing streak of conference domination as a springboard to the number one overall seed.  However, I think that they’ve only really been tested in one game this season- their triple-overtime victory over rival Oklahoma- and in that game, they only had to worry about containing one offensive weapon.  Maryland has two formidable threats in Stone and Trimble, and they are the two reasons I see Mark Turgeon’s team eliminating the top team.

 

#2 Villanova def. #6 Arizona

Both of these schools will be playing with chips on their shoulders- they have both underachieved relative to the talent that each team has.  While Arizona has the big play ability to keep this game within reach, I think that ‘Nova just has a little bit more talent, and a little bit more grittiness, than ‘Zona does; that will allow them to inch ever closer to a Final Four bid.

 

Elite 8

#5 Maryland def. #2 Villanova

This is where I think the Wildcats’ valiant run to prove their detractors wrong finally ends.  Yes, Villanova has been far more consistent than the Terps this season, but I think that Maryland had to play a tougher, more competitive schedule than Villanova did, so I feel like they are more battle-tested for this game.  I also feel that Stone will be looking to prove he is the real deal on a national stage, and that Trimble and Suliamon will look to end their college careers at the summit.  The collective force of those three players will be enough to get Maryland into the Final Four.

 

 

West Region

First Round

#1 Oregon def. #16 Holy Cross

Bill Carmody’s Crusaders are absolutely on fire- they come into this game with four straight road wins in their conference tournament, including one over former Cinderella Lehigh, and a victory over Southern in Dayton.  Despite that, there’s a reason that they entered the tournament with the third-worst record in the history of the 64-team bracket, and a reason that the Ducks are a number one seed; Oregon advances.

 

#8 Saint Joseph’s def. #9 Cincinnati

The Bearcats make it to the tournament of every year through their hard work on the boards and on defense.  They also have an exceptional point guard in Troy Caupain, who could have single-handedly led Cincy to the American conference championship if it weren’t for the amazing luck that UConn always seems to get come March.  But Phil Martelli’s crew, led by potential prospect DeAndre Bembry, have an extremely efficient offense, and the team has been playing well as of late, defeating VCU in their own conference championship game.  Saint Joe’s moves on.

 

#12 Yale def. #5 Baylor

Both teams thrive off of offensive rebounding- especially Baylor, who are led by star forward Rico Gathers.  Despite Gathers’s talent, and the quality of the talent around him, Scott Drew’s men have shown a tendency to be streaky, and I think that against a team like Yale, who will look to conference rival Harvard’s blueprint for winning a first-round game in the Big Dance, that Baylor won’t be streaking in the right direction.  Justin Sears and co. pull off the upset.

 

#4 Duke def. #13 UNC Wilmington

The Blue Devils have a lot of holes, and teams better than the one Coach K has this year have lost to lower seeds earlier in the tournament.  Of course, the team does have the divisive Grayson Allen and Justice Winslow-lookalike Brandon Ingram, and despite the relative lack of talent compared to Duke teams of the past, this squad does have a lot of fight in it.  UNC Wilmington is a good team and will put up a good fight, but Duke will move on.

 

#6 Texas def. #11 Northern Iowa

Texas has exceeded expectations in their first year under head coach Shaka Smart, and has played similar to the way that Smart’s VCU played in their heyday- extremely fast paced, and extremely streaky.  The Longhorns have defeated both North Carolina and Oklahoma this season, but they also lost to TCU and were defeated in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.  Northern Iowa, who have been tournament darlings since their upset of Kansas, have been very good of late, winning 12 of their last 13 games, with two wins coming against Gregg Marshall’s Wichita State.  However, Texas guard Isaiah Taylor has the potential to allow the Longhorns to break this game open, and I believe that Smart will give him enough motivation to do so.  Texas advances.

 

#3 Texas A&M def. #14 Green Bay

It stings a little to watch Green Bay do so well after the departure of Brian Wardle, who used to star at my high school, but I have to admit that the Phoenix are a very high-octane, and high-scoring, offense.  However, Billy Kennedy’s Aggies, an experienced squad that gave Kentucky a run for their money in the SEC tournament final, are a good defensive team that should be able to at least somewhat harness the prolific Phoenix, and are also a good passing team that should be able to control the tempo and play the game at their own pace.  The Aggies move on for an in-state matchup.

 

#10 Virginia Commonwealth def. #7 Oregon State

Both teams have two extraordinary players- VCU’s Melvin Johnson is a fantastic shooter, and Oregon State’s Gary Payton II is one of the best two-way players in the country.  Both teams also live and die by the three, and because of that, have had somewhat tumultuous seasons.  I think that the Rams’ defense will do just enough, though, to prevent the Beavers from draining enough shots to beat them.  VCU moves on.

 

#2 Oklahoma def. #15 California State-Bakersfield

In a year that many top teams have bounced up and down the rankings like bouncy balls, Oklahoma has been one of the most consistent teams in the country, and its star, Wooden Award favorite Buddy Hield, has been truly unbelievable this season.  This Cal State-Bakersfield team has a lot to be proud of, though Hield’s talent alone will be enough to boost the Sooners to the next round.

 

Second Round

#1 Oregon def. #8 Saint Joseph’s

The Ducks and the Hawks both have extremely efficient offenses, and both teams come into the tournament on a relative hot streak.  It could come down to who can get the most out of their frontcourt, or even who happens to have more overall ability.  I think that Oregon, with versatile big man Chris Boucher, wins the front court, and I feel the Ducks have a greater variety of scoring options than St. Joe’s does.  The Ducks roll on.

 

#4 Duke def. #12 Yale

Even though Yale is a gritty team who has a major strength- rebounding- that is one of Duke’s major weaknesses, I don’t think that the Bulldogs will have an answer for the two Blue Devil stars.  Duke wins a fairly easy one.

 

#3 Texas A&M def. #6 Texas

As well as Shaka Smart has done with the Longhorns, the Aggies could be the cream of the crop coming from the SEC, and I feel that for all the pressure that Texas will try and put on its in-state counterparts, A&M has enough talent, and enough leadership, to deftly maneuver the press.  The Aggies advance.

 

#2 Oklahoma def. #10 Virginia Commonwealth

VCU has used its Havoc defense and exceptional shooting to upset some big-name schools in past tournament runs, and they’ll be looking to do the same against the Sooners.  However, Buddy Hield and his teammates have had a couple of very solid games against West Virginia, a team that, while not as aggressive as the Rams, have far more talent than them.  Oklahoma should be able to ease to victory.

 

Sweet 16

#1 Oregon def. #4 Duke

Duke has played in a lot more competitive games than Oregon has this season, and I feel that they are a lot more scrappy for it.  In order to knock off the Ducks, they’ll have to be-whereas the Blue Devils primarily revolve around two players, there are multiple guys that Dana Altman can count on to step up on any given night.  As tough as Coach K’s team is, I don’t think they have enough in them to contain all of Oregon’s weapons; the Ducks live to quack another day.

 

#2 Oklahoma def. #3 Texas A&M

A battle of former Big 12 foes will make for a very interesting game- they seem to be relatively equal to each other in every facet of the game, from passing to rebounding to transition defense.  The difference in this one, I believe, will be what has carried the Sooners to the heights that they have reached this year- Buddy Hield.  The superstar guard will allow his school to sneak by their rivals to the south and into the Elite Eight.

 

Elite 8

#2 Oklahoma def. #1 Oregon

Both teams are exceptional offensive teams that have multiple players who can be the focal point of their respective game plans.  Oregon has a frontcourt that can stretch the Sooners out a little bit, and Lon Kruger’s crew has a more explosive backcourt that can open up a big lead very quickly.  In the end, I think it will come down to toughness, and I think that the Sooners, who come from the ultra-competitive Big 12, will have more fight in them than the Ducks, which will allow them to prevail in a tightly-contested game.

 

 

East Region

First Round

#1 North Carolina def. #16 Florida Gulf Coast

Florida Gulf Coast managed a couple of giant killings in their last tournament appearances, but the teams that they defeated were nowhere near as solid as the team that Roy Williams is running out this season.  North Carolina wins with ease.

 

#9 Providence def. #8 Southern California

This is a game between teams with contrasting styles- Andy Enfield’s USC, a balanced squad that has six players who average double figures, and Providence, whose success has typically been determined by the type of game that Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil turn out each night.  In tournament play, when gameplay slows down and efficient teams typically take the cake, a team like USC would seem like a straightforward pick; that’s probably why they have a higher seed in this game.  However, in what could be his last game as a Friar, I think Dunn steps up, and that Bentil provides a great foil, allowing Providence to squeak by into the next round.

 

#12 Chattanooga def. #5 Indiana

I love Indiana- I think that Tom Crean is a fantastic coach, and that Yogi Ferrell is one of the three best point guards in the country.  However, I think that Chattanooga, one of the few mid-major teams that won their conference tournament as a number one seed, have enough cohesiveness to limit Ferrell’s effectiveness and prevent his up-and-down teammates from getting going.  The senior won’t go down without a fight, but I think Chattanooga advances.

 

#4 Kentucky def. #13 Stony Brook

Kentucky started the season slow and had a tough time coming together as a unit, but the team found their rhythm as the season went on, culminating in their recent victory in the SEC tournament.  Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray form one of the most dynamic backcourts in the game, and even though this Kentucky team isn’t as loaded as its been in past years, they are still good enough to make a decent run in the tournament.  The Wildcats will move on.

 

#6 Notre Dame def. #11 Michigan

I must admit that I’m a little bit biased towards the Fighting Irish- I’ve been a fan of theirs for as long as I can remember.  However, Mike Brey’s squad has proven that they are capable of a deep run in the tournament- they came thisclose to knocking off a loaded Kentucky squad last season, and have an extremely efficient offense.  North Carolina showed the way to dominate the Irish- defend the perimeter and work from the inside-out on offense- and while Michigan has extremely talented perimeter players, I don’t think that the underrated duo of Zach Auguste and Bonzie Colson are strong enough inside to eke out a victory over the Wolverines.

 

#3 West Virginia def. #14 Stephen F. Austin

West Virginia, along with Texas, is a big team that plays with the mentality of a little team.  They play outstanding defense and count on the depth of their team to keep the tempo up all game and wear out opponents.  That means bad news for the Lumberjacks, who might have been hoping for a team that was a little bit more susceptible to a giant-killing.  The Mountaineers will advance easily.

 

#7 Wisconsin def. #10 Pittsburgh

Early on in the year, it looked like both of these teams would struggle all season- Wisconsin under the burden of defending their Big Ten championship, and Pitt with the reality of playing in a conference with as much talent as the SEC.  However, both teams have managed to find their footing, and come into the tournament capable of winning a couple of games.  This match-up will be a tight one, but the sidekick to last year’s Frank Kaminsky show, Nigel Hayes, will carry his Badgers on to the next round.

 

#2 Xavier def. #15 Weber State

Weber State has a couple qualities that could allow them to topple the Musketeers- a star to rally around, Joel Bolomboy, and a lot of grit.  However, Xavier is capable of being tough when it needs to be and explosive when it senses weakness in its opponent.  This game might be closer than some expect, but eventually, I think Xavier will pull this one out.

 

Second Round

#1 North Carolina def. #9 Providence

There’s always a possibility that Kris Dunn puts up 40 points, Ben Bentil turns in a double-double, and the rest of Ed Cooley’s Friars pick up enough of the slack to squeak out a win against the Tar Heels.  That’s the only way that I can really see Providence moving on from this game, and despite my fondness for Dunn, I just can’t see it happening; North Carolina advances.

 

#4 Kentucky def. #12 Chattanooga

Yogi Ferrell is good, but he alone can’t hold a candle to Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray; Chattanooga won’t be able to contain both of the Wildcats’ elite guards, and Kentucky should breeze through to the Sweet 16.

 

#6 Notre Dame def. #3 West Virginia

West Virginia has an absolutely ferocious defense; Notre Dame has one of the country’s most efficient offenses.  West Virginia’s offense is either really good or really bad; Notre Dame’s defense is lackluster at best, but has been good enough to limit some good offensive teams.  So…  something has to give, right?  I think that the Mountaineer defense will try its very hardest to crack veteran guard Demetrius Jackson; if he plays well, the Irish win, and if he plays poor, Bob Huggins and company will win.  I think Jackson rises to the occasion.

 

#2 Xavier def. #7 Wisconsin

Both of these teams were among the top performers as the season came to a close, and are relatively similar in the fact that they don’t really stand out in the front or backcourt.  However, I feel that Xavier has been consistent for longer than the Badgers due to their superior talent, and that talent will propel the Musketeers to the Sweet 16.

 

Sweet 16

#1 North Carolina def. #4 Kentucky

This might be the dream Sweet 16 match-up, a game between two of the biggest powerhouses in men’s basketball history.  Ulis and Murray are superior to what the Tar Heels will run out at guard, but Brice Johnson and North Carolina’s frontcourt is arguably the tops in the country, as well.  I feel that the experience that UNC has in relation to the Wildcats will see Roy Williams’ squad move on to the Elite Eight.

 

#6 Notre Dame def. #2 Xavier

This will be a game between two teams with extremely efficient offenses and extremely inconsistent defenses.  I think that Xavier is slightly better in the paint, but Notre Dame is superior on the perimeter, and has had more experience making forays this deep into the tournament than Xavier’s core has.  This will be an exciting one that I think the Irish will pull out.

 

Elite 8

#1 North Carolina def. #6 Notre Dame

              These two teams have already squared off twice this season.  In their first matchup, back on February 6, the Fighting Irish upset the then-second ranked Tar Heels in South Bend, winning by 4.  In their most recent match-up, in the semifinal of the ACC tournament (on a neutral court, I might add), North Carolina shellacked the Irish, winning by 31, neutralizing the interior presence of Zach Auguste and playing tight perimeter defense to limit the Irish’s shooting effectiveness.  While I expect this game to be a little bit closer than the blowout UNC laid on Notre Dame a week ago, I still expect the Roy Williams’s team to win easily.

 

 

Midwest Region

First Round

#1 Virginia def. #16 Hampton

Hampton might be the best 16 seed in the tournament, but Virginia is a giant killer’s nightmare due to their ability to control possession.  Tony Bennett’s crew wins with ease.

 

#8 Texas Tech def. #9 Butler

Butler hasn’t been as impressive as it was when Gordon Heyward, Shelvin Mack, and Brad Stevens were hanging around campus, but they are still a very formidable team- led by Kelan Martin, the Bulldogs can put the ball in the hoop when they’re on their game; however, they seem to be nothing special on defense.  Texas Tech, which held its own in the always treacherous Big 12 thanks to Coach Tubby Smith’s patented defensive approach, has the ability to cause Butler to lose its rhythm, but aren’t overly talented with the ball.  As is the case in most postseason tournaments, the team with better defense will win out; the Red Raiders will go on.

 

#5 Purdue def. #12 Arkansas- Little Rock

Purdue wasn’t overly flashy this season- and they probably never will be under coach Matt Painter- but the Boilermakers impressed many as the season drew on, and they came into greater national prominence after their run to the final of the Big 10 tournament.  Boilermaker senior AJ Hammons leads a very large, and very strong, frontcourt; while Little Rock is a very good defensive team, and seems to have the toughness required to pull off a giant-killing, Purdue’s size will just be too much to overcome.  The Big Ten team advances.

 

#4 Iowa State def. #13 Iona

Both of these teams are fast paced, transition oriented squads with legit stars- Iona’s AJ English is an absolute baller; his ability to score would cause even the best defenses headaches, and his ability to pass keeps the amount of double teams he sees to a minimum, or else his teammates would be constantly left open for easy buckets.  ISU’s Georges Niang is coming to the conclusion of a career that will see him remembered as one of the best two-way players in the history of Cyclones basketball.  While English may be a slightly better players, Niang’s supporting cast is far superior to English’s, and will allow the Cyclones to grind out a tough win.

 

#6 Seton Hall def. #11 Gonzaga

Seton Hall really came on at the end of the season, winning the Big East tournament and showcasing the shifty star that is Isaiah Whitehead.  Even though Gonzaga has two unbelievable players in Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis and come into the tourney on a little run, the ‘Zags haven’t really been consistent all year, struggling in a West Coast Conference that only had one other true contender.  I feel like they fail to find a rhythm, and the Pirates capitalize on that to pull out a victory.

 

#3 Utah def. #14 Fresno State

The Bulldogs have shown that they can handle some relentless defensive match-ups, and they also have Marvelle Harris, a proven scorer they can turn to if all else fails.  But Fresno hasn’t play a team that was as effective from top to bottom as the Utes have been this season (they played Oregon before the Ducks caught fire), and they haven’t seen a player as talented as Utah bruiser Jakob Poetl.  Utah prevails in a tight one.

 

#7 Dayton def. #10 Syracuse

Both of these teams have underwhelmed this season- Archie Miller’s Flyers struggled as the season drew to a close, and the Orange have hit some weird rough patches throughout the entire season.  While Dayton’s offense isn’t all that great, Syracuse comes close to being a team that lives and dies by the 3, and I think the Flyers are good enough to prevent the ‘Cuse shooters from getting going.  Dayton wins.

 

#2 Michigan State def. #15 Middle Tennessee State

MTSU played VCU tough earlier this season…  And that’s the only thing they really have going in their favor.  They performed very well within their conference tournament and certainly deserve to be here, but Denzel Valentine and the rest of his Spartans are just too big and too fast to handle.  Michigan State wins in a rout.

 

Second Round

#1 Virginia def. #8 Texas Tech

Both teams are capable of playing some real lockdown defense, so I think that this one will be a low scoring affair.  The difference will be Malcolm Brogdon- he is creative enough to find enough cracks in the Red Raider defense to give his team some breathing room here.  The Wahoos advance.

 

#5 Purdue def. #4 Iowa State

The Cyclones are true to their nickname- they play at a fairly fast pace- but that doesn’t translate very well to tournament play, when the game typically slows down.  It also doesn’t translate very well to a game against Purdue, who can easily dictate any game’s tempo with their impressive array of bigs.  Purdue will dominate the paint and walk away with an easy victory.

 

#6 Seton Hall def. #3 Utah

I think that talent wise, these teams are about even, but Utah came into the tournament off a beat down from Pac 12 rivals Oregon while the Hall come in to the tourney after knocking off a good Villanova team in the Big East championship.  The Pirates pull the upset.

 

#2 Michigan State def. #7 Dayton

This one might not be all that close- Michigan State’s patented tough defense is tough to crack, even for good teams, much less a mediocre offense like the one Dayton has, and as good as the Flyers are on the other side of the ball, the Spartans are good enough at passing and shooting to give Archie Miller’s team fits.  Sparty is Sweet.

 

Sweet 16

#1 Virginia def. #5 Purdue

The Boilermakers will be an interesting test for the Wahoos, because Purdue is superior in the paint and has the ability to frustrate any team’s attempt to control possession.  However, I think that Virginia is seasoned enough, and gritty enough, to impose their will on the game and grind out a win over Matt Painter’s team.

 

#2 Michigan State def. #6 Seton Hall

Both of these teams are fairly balanced from top to bottom and come in to the Dance on hot streaks.  The thing that the Spartans have that Seton Hall doesn’t, though, is veteran know-how- Denzel Valentine and co. have been here before, and their experience will be the deciding factor that allows them to topple the Pirates.

 

Elite 8

#2 Michigan State def. #1 Virginia

This is a game that coaches can watch for a clinic on solid defense and possession-oriented basketball.  This was also a match-up that we saw last year, one that the Spartans were able to win because of their superior offensive ability.  I don’t see the result of last year’s game changing- Sparty moves on to the Final Four.

 

 

Final Four

#2 Oklahoma def. #5 Maryland

              Watching Buddy Hield and Melo Trimble go at it will be a dream to watch for any aspiring guard- seeing two guys square off, at the top of their game, on a national platform.  I feel that the Sooners are more consistent and cohesive as a unit than the Terps are, and that will allow them to frustrate Stone and put too much of the burden on the Maryland backcourt.  Oklahoma moves on to the title game.

 

#1 North Carolina def. #2 Michigan State

              This game is sure to be the match-up of the tournament- two balanced teams, starring two fundamentally sound players and coached by two of the game’s legends.  I think that Roy Williams’s squad is better on offense and that Tom Izzo’s crew are stronger on defense; however, I feel like the ACC tournament showed that Carolina can bamboozle teams that play a variety of different defensive systems, and that their defense has largely improved since the season began.  The Tar Heels move on in a thriller.

 

 

National Championship

#1 North Carolina def. #2 Oklahoma

              With all due respect to Maryland and Oklahoma- they are both very talented teams with phenomenal athletes led by exceptional coaches- as soon as I saw the bracket, I knew that North Carolina would meet Michigan State in the Final Four, and that that match-up would be the de facto championship game.  As good as Buddy Hield is, and as underrated as Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard, the Tar Heels have an efficient offense, know how to buckle down defensively when they need to, and have the veteran know-how to get them out of tight spots.  North Carolina wins to give North Carolina another championship under Roy Williams.